Rain is coming to Southern California. Will it be enough to end fire season?
Rain is headed to Southern California this week – the second dose of beneficial moisture since catastrophic wildfires ripped through Los Angeles County in early January following a record-dry start to the typical rainy season.
The catastrophic Palisades and Eaton fires are fully contained but together destroyed more than 16,000 structures and killed at least 29 people. Although the wet weather is a much-needed break from January’s parched, windy and dangerous conditions, experts say it might not be enough to end Southern California’s fire season.
“Unless this one overperforms, I don’t think we’ll be able to end fire season down here,” said Mike Wofford, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Los Angeles. “We’d have to probably get at least 2 or 3 inches out of this, and a lot of areas probably won’t get that.”
Atmospheric rivers are dousing Northern California this week with potentially flooding rains and feet of mountain snow. But the storms will weaken as they shift south.
Two distinct systems will bring widespread light-to-moderate rain to Southern California: one Tuesday into Wednesday, and another Thursday and Friday.
While the Central Coast from San Luis Obispo to Santa Barbara will get a good soaking – more than 3 inches in some spots – areas farther south could see considerably less. Between 0.5 and 1.75 inches are forecast for Los Angeles and Ventura counties between Tuesday and Friday, with more in the mountains. San Diego might receive less than a 10th of an inch all week, although rain amounts are still uncertain.
The week’s storms will put a dent in the substantial rain deficits for the southern third of the state, which has seen less than 25% of normal rainfall since the start of the water year on Oct. 1.
Most areas are in severe-to-extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
As of Monday, downtown Los Angeles had received 0.7 inches of rain for the water year, just 10 percent of its normal 7.45 inches by this date. In San Diego, just 0.35 inches have fallen, its driest start to the rainy season on record. The city typically gets more than 5 inches by early February.
Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego, said recent and upcoming rains would buy at least a few weeks’ reprieve from wildfire concerns. But outlooks into mid-February lean dry, and Santa Ana wind events are possible in February and March, he said.
Still, forecasters are hopeful that the influx of moisture will jump-start the growth of green grasses, which significantly slow fire spread. And larger plants such as shrubs will begin to take up moisture, making them less flammable.
“It will vastly improve from what we had last month,” said Kristen Stewart, a meteorologist with the Southern California Geographic Area Coordination Center in Riverside. “But we’ll need at least a couple more storms.”
If additional storms fail to materialize, parts of coastal Southern California could remain at heightened wildfire risk into the spring, according to the latest wildfire outlook for the region.
“It’s going to depend on how much moisture we get,” Stewart said.
The uncertainty about whether or when fire season will end in February is remarkable, given that the season should have ended months ago. California fire officials now often use the term “fire year” because the state’s fire seasons have become longer and more intense with climate change – January’s devastating wildfires have taken that concept to a whole new level.