Storms or sun on the Fourth of July? What to know about the U.S. forecast.

The Fourth of July is often when peak summertime sets in across much of the country. While people in some spots will see high heat, and others will need to dodge thunderstorms, many might remember this Independence Day as a relatively pleasant one.

Notable heat will mostly target the central U.S., while cooler-than-average conditions will dominate portions of the northeast quadrant of the U.S. and the West Coast.

Areas of thunderstorm activity are a good bet on the Fourth itself – which is Friday – and in the days leading up to it. After a storm on Tuesday, with a risk of flooding in some northeastern cities, most days the rest of this holiday week and weekend feature more dispersed rains.

Perhaps most important, most of the East and West should have good fireworks-watching weather on the Fourth of July itself.

Where storms may hamper travel

Beginning Tuesday, travel troubles were focused on the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where widespread showers and storms developed ahead of an advancing cold front.

There was a risk of flooding and severe thunderstorms from D.C. to the New York City area.

On Wednesday, there will be wet spots in the southeastern states into Florida; driving along the Interstate 95 corridor in that region could be tricky at times. Other zones of concentrated storminess may develop in the southern high Plains into the Four Corners area of the Desert Southwest, both particularly during the afternoon and evening.

A fairly similar story persists Thursday. Odds of rain are highest in Florida and parts of the southern Plains, with hit-or-miss activity also probably dotting the Northeast and intermountain West.

Where summer heat will be centralized

The cold front pushing off the East Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday will help limit high-end heat and humidity for many locations heading into the holiday weekend. For these regions, this equates to somewhat below-average temperatures and a more pleasant Fourth on Friday than many in recent memory.

Highs should mainly reach the 70s and 80s in New England, 80s to near 90 in the Mid-Atlantic and near 90 to the mid-90s in the Southeast.

According to the National Weather Service’s HeatRisk outlook, the potential for hazardously hot weather on Friday is highest in portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and is also dotted across portions of the South.

Cities such as Minneapolis, Madison, Wis., and Chicago are expected to see a major (Level 3 out of 4) heat risk on Friday. In this region, high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid-90s will combine with high humidity to allow heat indexes to rise to about 100.

Across the West, lower elevations will range from highs in the 90s to 100 or higher in the deserts, with 70s and 80s in the Pacific Northwest and cooler conditions near the coast.

Where there may be scattered downpours

Relatively compact zones of moderate to heavy rain may fall on the Upper Midwest and Florida in particular.

Low pressure near the international border with Canada and the northern tier of the U.S. will draw ample moisture north with the high heat.

Humidity and other storm fuels will exist across the Dakotas and Minnesota during the day Friday before shifting east into the night. There is potential for relatively widespread late-day storms, although they should be passing.

Additional activity farther south in the central Plains, from Kansas to Nebraska and Iowa, will probably be more scattered. Some severe weather – primarily spots of damaging wind – is possible in these regions.

The cold front that moves off much of the East Coast Wednesday is forecast to get hung up over Florida and is well positioned as a highway for moisture to flow over the Sunshine State through the Fourth.

That area is also being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for the potential of tropical development late in the week into the weekend. Weather models suggest there won’t be much intensification – though they do suggest there will be plenty of rain.

Downpours there could drop localized flooding rain over a short period, mostly during the day.

An early fireworks forecast

In the aforementioned regions, storm potential may affect any evening festivities, including fireworks displays, though most shows should be able to continue as planned.

High pressure out of Canada will be drifting over much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. It’s fresh enough that humidity should be lower than normal and skies rather clear, with limited Canadian wildfire smoke possible. That means mostly favorable skies for fireworks viewing.

Prime viewing conditions also could extend into parts of the Ohio Valley, mid-South and perhaps into the southern Plains region, where post-frontal air is still relatively fresh, if also seasonably toasty.

Much of the western U.S. should also offer solid skies for viewing. Some thunderstorms could dot the intermountain region as monsoon moisture pushes north, but that activity tends to dwindle by dark.

Localized zones will also have wildfire smoke to deal with.