Commentary: Can we find any good reasons Scottie Scheffler won’t win the U.S. Open?

Welcome to the 125th U.S. Open Championship, where it appears the tournament will still be contested, despite everyone wanting to hand the trophy to Scottie Scheffler already.

That includes the oddsmakers, who have enlisted Scheffler as a rare +275 favorite at BetMGM against the other 155 players in the field at Oakmont Country Club, which makes Scheffler the biggest favorite to win the event since 2009, when Tiger Woods was +175 (thank you, SportsOddsHistory).

By comparison, Scheffler owned two more victories at this point last year, but had longer odds (+325) going into the festivities at Pinehurst. In the nine years prior to that, the shortest odds for a favorite heading into the tournament were +600 (Scheffler in 2023, Jason Day in 2016 and Rory McIlroy in 2015), and none of those favorites won.

All of which should remind us of a long-standing wagering aphorism: When everyone else zigs, you’ve gotta zag. With that in mind, allow me to submit my reasons Scheffler is positively, absolutely, probably, maybe not going to win this one.

Let’s start with the fact that while the majority believes he’s a lock, the math contradicts the very concept of a lock. It’s right there in the implied probability. Based on that outright price to win, there is a roughly 75 percent chance that he won’t. That means the chances Scottie doesn’t win are three times greater than the chance he does. Most will insist the odds are in his favor this week, but a little sixth-grade math tells us the odds are in favor of it being literally anyone else.

I can understand your doubts, though. You’re a true believer in Scottie. You’ve watched him triumph in three of his last four starts. In two of the last six majors. You’ve examined every data point. You can recite his victories like a Wikipedia page.

Your argument is that Scheffler is the No. 1-ranked player in the world. Well, you know who else was atop the ranking? Sixteen guys who failed to win this tournament in each of the last 16 years. The last No. 1 player to claim a U.S. Open was Tiger Woods in 2008, if that even counts. I mean, he needed almost all of Monday afternoon to do it.

Ready to sell off your Scottie investments yet? Hang on, there’s more.

If you’ve never played the stock market — or wagered on golf, for that matter — then perhaps you believe that past performance is always an indicator of future results. History tells us Scheffler hasn’t won a U.S. Open. He’s finished second. He’s finished third. But no victories. For those who won’t believe anything until they see it with their own eyes, this remains a massive blemish on any idea he has a chance this week.

Just a few weeks removed from capturing the Wanamaker Trophy, Scheffler is attempting to join a very exclusive club. Only five players have won the PGA Championship and U.S. Open in the same year. Brooks Koepka was the most recent in 2018. Before him? Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, Ben Hogan and Gene Sarazen.

To really understand why this tournament is going to be a losing proposition for Scheffler, though, we have to dig deep into the record books.

He is still a week shy of his 29th birthday, which is a shame, because 28 is a preposterous age to try to win a U.S. Open title. Bryson DeChambeau was 30 last year. Wyndham Clark was 29 the year before that. Matt Fitzpatrick was 27. Jon Rahm 26. But 28? Gimme a break. You can’t win this tournament at 28 these days.

After winning the recent Memorial Tournament, Scheffler stood near the 18th green and cradled his 1-year-old son Bennett, even hamming it up for the cameras by placing his cap on the baby’s head. Seems pretty distracting. You know who doesn’t have any kids? The last three U.S. Open champions.

Scheffler is a native of Texas, a state with a rich golf history and an impressive lineage of major championship winners — or so he would have you believe. But if you do some investigating, you’ll find that he was actually born in New Jersey. Do you know who else has won a U.S. Open from the state of New Jersey? Nobody. Not Springsteen, not Bon Jovi, not Tony Soprano.

No player with the last initial “S” has won the U.S. Open since Jordan Spieth in 2015. No player with the first initial “S” since Steve Jones in 1996. Nobody with double-“S” initials since Scott Simpson in 1987. Scott Simpson! Scottie might as well be carrying ghosts with him around Oakmont.

So, there you have it. All the reasons Scheffler positively, absolutely, probably, maybe won’t win this week’s U.S. Open.

Except, uh, there’s just one teensy, weensy thing we’ve overlooked.

He just happens to be way better than every other golfer on the planet right now.

All right, who are we kidding? I’m in. Cancel the tourney, everybody, head home. Let’s just give him the trophy right now.