Commentary: Is Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez having his best season yet? One metric says yes
The question here is: Do you believe the stat geeks?
Do you trust the people who have essentially confirmed that, yes — Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Randy Johnson and all of the other MLB titans are, indeed, the best to have played the game?
Because if you do, then you should acknowledge that Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez is on pace to have the best season of his four-year career. And it’s mainly because of that glove that’s looking more golden by the day.
The all-encompassing stat used to measure a baseball player’s value these days, of course, is Wins Above Replacement — better known as WAR. It’s a metric that estimates approximately how many victories a player adds to a team by himself. The MLB leader this year is Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge, whose 5.6 WAR towers above the rest of the league, with No. 2 (Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña) coming in at 4.1. Rodríguez, though? He’s tied with teammate Cal Raleigh for sixth in MLB. Yes, if you buy that metric, Julio’s name should be appearing on American League MVP ballots if the season ended today.
We’re 70 games in, and if this WAR pace keeps, Julio will fly by his career-high of 6.2, achieved when he won AL Rookie of the Year in 2022? What’s behind it all, though?
Sure, Rodríguez has been heating up in the batter’s box, as he tends to do as the season rolls on. Still, his OPS of .754 is .100 points lower than what he posted his rookie season and .66 points below what he put up in 2023, when he finished fourth in the MVP race. He’s been decent at the plate … but utterly dominant in the outfield.
“I know from having put fingers down (playing catcher) before, when you have a guy out in center field that can run it down, it saves you a lot. I think Julio has done that a number of times this year,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said. “I think often times defense goes unnoticed in this game, but what he’s been able to do out there has been really good — an elite level.”
Rodríguez’s favorite catch of this season came when he leapt above the fence at T-Mobile park to rob Yankees leadoff man Trent Grisham of a home run in the first inning on May 14. There was a similar steal two Thursdays ago against the Diamondbacks, when Julio brought back a sure dinger from former Mariner Chris Taylor by again going airborne at the wall.
Sometimes a cherry-picked pair of highlights can exaggerate — or even cover-up — a player’s defensive impact over the season. Not the case with Rodríguez. Through last Friday, Julio’s defensive WAR of 1.4 was tied for second in MLB and first among outfielders (his career-high for dWAR is 0.7). He has 11 defensive runs saved — perhaps the most heralded defensive statistic — which is first among AL outfielders and third in MLB.
What’s interesting is that Rodríguez wasn’t always a center fielder. He initially played right in the minors. He even recalls a conversation he had with former Mariners center fielder Mike Cameron, who thought it would be best if he stayed in right and focused on his offense. Wasn’t going to happen.
“I knew where he was coming from with it,” Rodríguez said. “But it was something where I wanted to put myself in the position to be the best defender I could, and I think more often than not, the best defender plays in the middle.”
Do you feel like you’ve been playing the best defense of your career?
“I do feel like I’ve been really consistent on the defensive side — tracking balls, making the right throws,” Rodríguez said. “I take a lot of pride in being a really good defender, that’s something I feel like I have a little more control of and I feel like I try to do my best when I’m out there on the field.”
What’s different about this year defensively in terms of everything seeming to go your way?
“I would say a little bit more comfortable out there. I feel like a lot of people forget that my first time really playing center field is when I got called up to the big leagues,” Rodríguez said. “There’s a lot more that comes with switching to a new position. So I’m feeling more comfortable, knowing my spots, knowing better my strengths. Whenever I’m back out in the field — I’ve played there a lot.”
It would be easy to look at Rodríguez’s batting stats and conclude it’s the second straight season where he’s failed to live up to his perennial All-Star hype. A closer look suggests he’s helping this team — more so than he ever has.
WAR is his defense for that. And defense is behind that WAR.