Erick set to strike Mexico as a hurricane this week
Tropical Storm Erick is on a path to strike Mexico as a powerful and intensifying hurricane Thursday. It’s the fifth named storm of the season in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The storm is forecast to come ashore southeast of Acapulco. The anticipated sustained winds of 110 mph would make it a high-end Category 2 at landfall, but given the likelihood of conditions that would fuel strengthening, a major hurricane of Category 3 intensity is also a risk.
The storm is on track to hit an area that has a relatively low population density but is dotted with small towns and villages, as well as beachside resorts.
A small shift in that track, however, could bring the storm center closer to a highly populated zone.
In addition to destructive coastal threats from strong wind and inundation from storm surge, “life-threatening flooding and mud slides are possible, especially in steep terrain,” the National Hurricane Center warns. Some locations could see 12 inches or more of rainfall as the storm slowly moves inland.
A hurricane warning is in effect from Puerto Ángel to Punta Maldonado in southern Mexico, with a hurricane watch running west to Acapulco and east to Bahías de Huatulco.
A tropical storm warning is also in effect from Puerto Ángel to Salina Cruz on the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
“Unfortunately this one might prove to be the most dangerous for #Mexico as the system is forecast to become a #hurricane as it approaches the coast,” hurricane specialist Philippe Papin wrote on Bluesky.
Latest on Erick
Tropical Storm Erick developed during the predawn hours Tuesday, about 300 miles south of the southern Mexico coastline and the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
The storm had sustained winds of 50 mph late Tuesday. It was moving to the northwest around 7 mph and slowly strengthening, with a central pressure of 29.56 inches.
Sitting over supportive sea surface temperatures around 84 degrees and in an environment with little in the way of disruptive winds aloft, Erick is forecast to reach hurricane strength of at least 74 mph by midday Wednesday. At that point, it will be about 24 hours from landfall.
The storm is expected to further intensify until it reaches shore midday Thursday. The current forecast at landfall is a strong Category 2 with 110 mph sustained winds. Category 3 begins at 111 mph.
In addition to the strong wind, a rise in sea level known as storm surge of several feet is possible near the center. Accompanied by waves, it will contribute to dangerous nearshore conditions. Rainfall totals of at least 6 to 12 inches in the landfall area could also cause flooding.
Erick will be more impactful than previous storms
Intensity forecasts for landfall have bumped up by about 20 mph from the initial projections and could still be conservative.
“The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, but some of the numerical guidance shows even more strengthening than that,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in its morning discussion, adding that there is still a “significant chance” for rapid intensification before landfall.
Rapid intensification is defined as an increase in sustained wind speed of at least 35 mph over 24 hours or less. Studies have found that rapid intensification is becoming more common in a warming world.
Given the storm’s angle of approach, similar to the angle of Mexico’s coastline, Acapulco is not in the clear, as indicated by its place within the cone of uncertainty. Only a small shift in track could bring the center of Erick considerably closer to the metro area of 850,000 people.
Record pace and more to come
Erick is the earliest “E” storm in the eastern Pacific on record, coming sooner than in 2021 by more than a week – that year’s “E” storm wasn’t named until June 25.
Dalila also accomplished the same, forming earlier than the previous record from Dolores in 1974 by about a day.
Before eastern-Pacific storms were named, the 1956 season reached its fourth storm somewhat earlier, although data from then is less certain.
The hyperactive stretch that began in late May could continue. If Fabio, the next name on the list, develops before July 1, it will also become the earliest on record for that letter.
Weather models suggest additional development is probable in the eastern Pacific over the next 10 days to two weeks. There are no signs of another similarly intense system approaching land.