Heavy rains fall as storm surges from Florida to Virginia

An intensifying atmospheric river that has already hit parts of the South with as much as 9 inches of rain will surge north and east Monday.

The storm, which caused a waterspout and tornado in Pensacola, Florida, over the weekend, is stretching 1,000 miles from South Florida to southern Pennsylvania, bringing intense rain to some areas, including some of the heaviest downpours since the remnants of Hurricane Helene in the western Carolinas.

As of late Monday, nearly 20 million people were under flood watches that covered parts of Florida, Alabama, North Carolina, Virginia and the panhandles of West Virginia to Maryland. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are a threat in the hardest-hit areas through Tuesday.

A relatively stationary band of showers and storms has already produced about that much rainfall in southeast North Carolina on Monday. Numerous reports of flooded roads, including some water rescues for disabled vehicles, have come in on either side of the North and South Carolina border.

Potentially life-threatening flash flooding was ongoing in parts of Duplin and Onslow counties in North Carolina, including the cities of Morehead City and North Topsail Beach. Some totals were already at 3 to 6 inches, with an additional 2 to 4 inches expected as the band slowly shifts north.

The area from Miami to West Palm Beach, Florida, was under a moderate risk (Level 3 out of 4) for excessive rainfall Monday. A slight risk (Level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall extended from the Florida Keys to just southwest of D.C.

A couple tornadoes, strong gusts and isolated hail were possible in the Southeast and Florida on Monday, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center.

On Tuesday, the still-strengthening atmospheric river is expected to focus from North Carolina to southern Pennsylvania, bringing flood risks to the Mid-Atlantic.

Where the worst weather will be

Late Monday, downpours extended from Florida to the Carolina coast, then bent northwestward to the lower Ohio Valley. Rainfall was increasing in coverage across Virginia as the storm system slowly shifts north.

Monday

Cities that are likely to be affected by heavy rain and/or strong storms through Monday night include Key West, Miami and Melbourne in Florida; Savannah and Augusta in Georgia; Greenville, Columbia, Charleston and Myrtle Beach in South Carolina; Charlotte, Asheville, Boone and Greensboro in North Carolina; and Abingdon, Blacksburg, Roanoke and Staunton in Virginia.

The National Weather Service office in Miami mentioned the potential for isolated rainfall amounts of greater than 8 inches, leading to flooding in urban areas. After downpours early Monday, the heaviest rain stayed mainly just offshore through the day.

Precipitation increasingly focuses from the Carolina coastline into the Mid-Atlantic overnight.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, the worst weather will stretch from eastern North Carolina to southern Pennsylvania, with the atmospheric river hooking into the Mid-Atlantic.

Torrential rainfall may cause flooding in parts of the region, delay flights and cause difficult travel conditions along Interstates 95 and 81.

The cities expected to be hit by this heavy rain and flood risk will be Raleigh, Wilmington and Cape Hatteras in North Carolina; Norfolk, Williamsburg, Richmond, Charlottesville, Fredericksburg and Winchester in Virginia; Martinsburg in West Virginia; and Cumberland in Maryland.

D.C. will also be soaked by rain, particularly in the afternoon and evening.

Severe weather threats are low, but an isolated brief tornado or some hail are both possible with the most intense of thunderstorms.

When will it end?

While the storm will weaken Wednesday and Thursday, scattered downpours are still expected along the Eastern Seaboard. The system will move offshore Friday.