Russian advance in Ukraine is slowing despite Putin’s confidence

Russian forces in Ukraine have made only small territorial gains this year amid steady resistance from Kyiv’s military, undercutting President Vladimir Putin’s assertions that his army has gained the upper hand in the war.

Battlefield data indicate that – despite a consistent advantage in manpower and steady gains – Putin’s military has fallen far short so far of satisfying his war aims. The pace of Russia’s main advance in eastern Ukraine has halved since the start of the year compared with a similar period through the end of 2024, according to data compiled by the DeepState open-source mapping service.

As President Donald Trump pulls back from U.S. efforts to end the fighting, Putin’s envoys have continued to issue maximalist demands for Ukraine to cede four regions in its east and south over which the Kremlin has claimed sovereignty, but that Russia only partially occupies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected the ultimatum.

The faltering diplomatic process means the future of Ukraine and Europe’s broader security is likely to be shaped by events on the battlefield. With Russian and Ukrainian forces close to deadlock at present, the ability of Kyiv and its allies to continue supplying men and weapons to its defenses, perhaps without much U.S. support, will likely be crucial.

Russia’s military has advanced on the order of about 16 square miles per week into Ukrainian territory on average, down from about 48 square kilometers averaged from mid-August through the end of last year, the data tracked by Bloomberg showed.

The state of the battlefield is in marked contrast with the diplomatic shift in Putin’s favor. He looked to win time this week in a phone call with Trump, who backed off ceasefire demands and sanctions threats, raising fears in Europe that he was moving away from a long-touted commitment to reach a swift peace deal.

In a subsequent call with European leaders, Trump signaled that he was convinced Russia was winning, repeating a number of the Kremlin’s talking points, according to people familiar with the exchange who declined to comment on talks behind closed doors.

Fighting on the ground paints a different picture. Public data also show that Russia has seized less than a quarter percent – 0.15% – of Ukrainian territory since January. The eastern Donetsk region, which has seen the war’s fiercest fighting and has been partially occupied for more than a decade, still isn’t under Moscow’s full control.

The figures carry many caveats. Fighting that’s been bogged down by Ukraine’s frigid winters tends to intensify in the summer months. As with all conflicts, the war could lurch in unexpected directions, spurred by political decisions far from the battlefield.

But at Russia’s current rate of advance in Donetsk alone, a region a bit smaller than Belgium, it would take several years to fully occupy it, according to Bloomberg calculations based on DeepState data. Extrapolating from that – a purely theoretical exercise – occupying all of Ukraine would take well over a century.

“Putin’s thinking that he can take all four regions swiftly – or even any time soon – is not realistic at all,” said Eric Ciaramella, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Citing well developed Ukrainian defenses, he said Russia “is only achieving localized breakthroughs.”

None of the calculations minimizes Ukraine’s mounting challenges, with a manpower shortage, a war-weary population and waning support from the U.S. under Trump.

With fighting growing fiercer in the summer months, the potential for a Russian breakthrough on the front line remains a risk for Ukraine even as Moscow’s troops grind forward at a massive cost in casualties.

Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian stronghold in Donetsk region and a primary target of Russia’s current war campaign, has managed to hold out, but Kyiv’s defense of the city has become increasingly tenuous.

“Every campaign reaches a breaking point, when the front starts to collapse,” said Yevgeny Buzhinsky, a retired Russian general and Moscow-based defense analyst. “That moment will come, because Ukraine’s problems are systemic.”

While European supporters – led by France, Germany, and the U.K. – have redoubled pledges to back Ukraine, Kyiv’s most powerful ally is shifting course, with potentially serious consequences for the continued supply of U.S. weaponry beyond the summer.

Trump has repeatedly taken Zelenskyy to task – most visibly in the Oval Office – while placing little pressure on Putin, as shown by his walking back of threats to impose more sanctions if Putin rejected an unconditional ceasefire.

The comments projected growing fatigue with his role as a mediator, raising the prospect of a pullback from talks that have borne little fruit so far. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said the diplomatic retreat plays into Putin’s hands.

“Russia cannot sustain operations indefinitely, but for now Moscow thinks its leverage over Ukraine will build over time,” Watling said. “And since Trump has strongly implied that he will withdraw from negotiations, the Russian military is set to intensify its operations.”

It’s deeply worrying for Kyiv, which believes only Washington among its allies has the power to make Putin end the war. It’s an element that goes beyond Ukraine’s dependence on U.S. military aid, including Patriot air defense systems, Starlink Internet service and intelligence data.

“It is America that Russia fears – and it is American influence that can save many lives, if used as leverage to make Putin end the war,” Zelenskyy said on Telegram in a regular evening address to the nation on Tuesday.

Still, the Kremlin also face difficult choices as the war goes on, according to Watling.

“While Russia can fight another two campaign seasons with its current approach to recruitment, further offensive operations into 2026 will likely require further forced mobilization, which is both politically and economically challenging,” he said.

The Kremlin’s forces are making progress and “time is on Russia’s side,” said Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of the National Defense Magazine in Moscow. Whatever territorial gains Russia makes “will objectively strengthen its hand in the negotiations,” he said.