Dave Boling: Gonzaga should be great, but these days you need a lot more than a crystal ball to predict college hoops

RIP: The sports prediction column.

Don’t mourn its passing. It had a long life.

Although often frivolous, it was healthy and meaningful when it was based on authoritative and informed opinions.

But it weakened quickly once the rules changed to the point where no one could be sure who was allowed to play for whatever team in whichever conference for however long they felt like it.

To shape comparative evaluations, one must have some answers.

Like: Who is going to be on the team? Heck, coaches aren’t really certain.

What’s the hold up? The NCAA.

What’s the NCAA waiting for? Court rulings.

What are the courts waiting for? Lawyers and legislators.

Oh, no, isn’t that how it got to this point in the first place?

So, as the Gonzaga men’s basketball team heads into the 2025 season, with a goodly number of unknown elements – like almost every other team – we’ll just settle on some ball-park assessments rather than an unfounded prediction.

Vaguely, without firm commitment, it appears the Zags will be really good. Good enough to earn their 27th straight NCAA Tournament bid. Beyond that? Dunno.

Their preseason AP ranking, No. 21, is the lowest since 2012, but this is the outfit that played for two national championships in the last nine seasons and just had a streak of nine straight Sweet 16s snapped in March, so they know how it’s done.

For anything more specific, we can only cite reasons for confidence.

• The frontcourt duo of Graham Ike and Braden Huff will be among the best in the country. Maybe THE best. They share the ball, are good passers and high-percentage shooters.

Their blend of baseline and lane skills will create defensive headaches for almost every opponent this season.

Defense and rim-protection? Developing.

Those two guys, with almost any collection of roster-mates, could make the Zags league contenders.

And, maybe it’s making too much out of a small slice of action last season against Santa Clara, when the bigs were in foul trouble, but 7-foot Ismaila Diagne seems an intriguing frontcourt reserve still growing into the game.

• Several top coaches around the country, including GU’s Mark Few, have claimed that the best way to counteract instability in the era of unlimited transfers is to be experienced. Something to the effect of: “it’s good to be old.”

Transfer guard Adam Miller has started 115 games at Illinois, LSU and Arizona State. Point-guard-apparent Braeden Smith started 70 games for Colgate and spent last season redshirted watching the court mastery of departed Ryan Nembhard.

And if anybody deserves to have the competitive clock still ticking, it’s sharp-shooting wing Steele Venters, the transfer from Eastern Washington who hasn’t played since 2023 because of lost seasons due to back-to-back leg injuries.

I’m supposed to abandon rooting interests in these endeavors, but I confess, I’m starting off this season pulling hard for the 24-year-old Venters to not only have a big season, but to keep coming back as long as they’ll let him.

• The last two seasons, the Zags have fallen out of the top 25 in mid-January, as they worked through the process of assimilating new talent and regulating their rotations.

The goal had always been to smooth out the rough edges during the season and peak in March. But last season, the mid-season slump meant getting a No. 8 seed and having to face top-seeded Houston in the NCAA’s second round.

The lessons of the last two seasons are the obvious: losses from November through February come at a cost. Nobody has to remind Mark Few of that. It may be assumed he’s applied great effort at solving that puzzle.

• But that performance in the NCAAs last spring proved another point as the Zags move into this season.

No matter how sketchy they looked at times during the season, especially defensively, the Zags in mid-March were one of the most impressive teams, good enough for another deep run with a little better break in the seeding.

They trounced Georgia in the opener. And after a cold-shooting first half in the second round, GU outscored Houston 49-47 in the second half.

Consider that offensive efficiency, 49 points by the Zags in 20 minutes against an historically dominant Houston defense. During the season, Houston held 10 opponents to 49 or fewer points for entire games.

Houston had no answer for Ike (27 points, drawing eight fouls and hitting all nine of his free throws). It’s unlikely anybody is going to have much success against him this season, either.

They trailed by just a point with 21 seconds left in the game before falling 81-76.

Houston coach Kelvin Sampson said the game had the quality of an Elite Eight or Final Four contest. It wasn’t just blather.

• Still, this No. 21 ranking is the lowest for the Zags since the fall of 2012.

That was the season they went on to win 32 games, attain a No. 1 ranking and still be rated No. 1 after losing to Wichita State in the second round.

Any attempts at preseason predictions should have been euthanized after that season.