Did the National Guard lower crime in DC? What data shows before, after Trump sent troops

BALTIMORE – The initial phase of President Donald Trump deploying the National Guard to Washington, D.C., wrapped up last week. But how effective were the first 30 days of this mission to get tough on crime?

The short answer: Fairly effective, at least in terms of reported crime statistics for various criminal offenses in the nation’s capital.

The Baltimore Sun curated and analyzed datasets comparing the number of reported crimes in D.C. from Aug. 11 to Sept. 9 — the first 30-day period with data available since Trump invoked the District of Columbia Home Rule Act to deploy troops last month — to the previous 30-day period from July 12. The Sun also looked at numbers from the same 30-day periods in 2024, when federal troops were not active in the city.

The data relies on the District of Columbia Geographic Information System, which classifies crimes based on the D.C. criminal code instead of the national classifications used by the FBI.

Here are some of the key findings:

•During the 30 calendar days since Trump deployed the National Guard and federalized D.C.’s police force, the total number of crimes reported dropped by 18% compared to the previous 30-day period.

•Thefts of — and from inside — motor vehicles saw a considerable drop-off during the first 30 days of the National Guard deployment.

•D.C. homicides dipped slightly during the start of the mission, but were well below 2024 levels prior to Trump’s intervention.

Summer crime reductions

While Trump has consistently exaggerated violent crime statistics in the nation’s capital, D.C. does tend to see persistently high crime during the warmer months — even as violence overall has fallen in recent years.

In the three periods from July 12 to Aug. 10, 2024, Aug. 11 to Sept. 9, 2024, and July 12 to Aug. 10, 2025, the data shows D.C. saw a total of 2,394, 2,346, and 2,351 crimes reported, respectively. From Aug. 11 to Sept. 9, 2025, that number dropped to 1,926 crimes — a reduction of 18% from both earlier this summer and the same time last year.

The declines appear to be driven by sharp dropoffs in reported robberies, as well as thefts related to motor vehicles.

From Aug. 11 to Sept. 9, D.C. reported 34% fewer thefts of motor vehicles compared to the previous 30 days, as the number of thefts dropped from 369 to 243. In 2024, D.C. reported 372 motor vehicle thefts from July 12 to Aug. 10 and 436 motor vehicle thefts from Aug. 11 to Sept. 9.

For reported thefts of items inside motor vehicles, D.C. saw 411 in the first month of the mission, compared to 578 in the 30 days prior — a nearly 29% reduction.

The data shows that the number of “other” unclassified thefts dropped from 1,139 to 1,044 in the 30-day periods immediately before and after Trump deployed troops this summer — an 8% reduction. These figures are comparable to 2024 levels across both time periods.

A spokesman for D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, a Democrat, declined to comment when asked how much credit Trump should receive for crime reductions in the city.

Less clear on homicide, sex abuse

While the data established considerable drops in reported crime across most categories, the number of homicides and sex crimes reported in D.C. has not followed a clear trend since federal troops entered the city.

From Aug. 11 to Sept. 9, D.C. reported eight homicides; nine people were killed in the city from July 12 to Aug. 10. This slight decrease seems to be more reflective of broader violence reductions since the summer of 2024, as 21 people were killed last year from July 12 to Aug. 10 and 15 people were killed from Aug. 11 to Sept. 9 in 2024.

As Trump and other Republican officials pointed out at the time, D.C. went 12 full calendar days without a homicide at the height of the crackdown, from Aug. 14 through Aug. 25. The president touted the period as “the first time that’s taken place in years, actually, years,” though D.C. actually had a longer stretch of 16 calendar days without a homicide in March.

According to the data, D.C. reported nine instances of “sex abuse” from Aug. 11 to Sept. 9 after seeing just two such cases in the previous 30 days. In 2024, the city saw 13 instances of sex abuse from July 12 to Aug. 10 and six cases from Aug. 11 to Sept. 9, respectively.

What’s next?

As Trump plans his crime battles beyond the nation’s capital, his allies in Congress are moving to capitalize on any violence reduction momentum the National Guard’s presence may have created. House Republicans — and some Democrats who signed on — passed two bills this week to overhaul D.C.’s criminal justice system.

Sponsored by Florida Rep. Bryon Donalds, the D.C. Crimes Act would prohibit local officials from changing sentencing laws and restrict local judges from being more lenient with young offenders. It also would amend the Home Rule Act to stop the D.C. Council from enacting any changes to sentencing laws.

Another bill, sponsored by Texas Rep. Brandon Gill, H.R. 5140, would allow children as young as 14 to be tried as an adult for certain criminal offenses.

The D.C. Crimes Act passed 240-179 with support from 31 Democrats, while H.R. 5140 passed 225-203 with support from eight Democrats.

And with the backing of Tennessee’s Republican governor and senators, Trump also has ordered National Guard troops to address crime in Memphis. Despite having a population just 7.5% larger than Baltimore, Memphis has seen 57% more homicides than Charm City this year.

The move comes after the president flirted for weeks with deploying troops to Baltimore, Chicago and other major cities in Democratic-run states — meaning the Memphis mission could be a way for Trump to address critics who saw federal troops as a tool for him to punish political opponents.