Gonzaga, Utah State and San Diego State the early Pac-12 basketball favorites | Projections
Six months from the season openers for the new Pac-12, clarity is emerging through the murk and muddle.
We know, for example, that the nine teams will play a double round-robin conference schedule, with home-and-away games against every opponent.
We know exactly half the 32 games will be nonconference matchups, a few of which can be sprinkled into open dates in January and February.
We know the conference tournament will be played in Las Vegas, although the specific location has not been finalized.
And we know Gonzaga stands as the team to beat but, perhaps, not the overwhelming favorite – at least not at this point in the offseason cycle.
The transfer portal has been open for 11 days and has more than 2,000 names. Most of the highest-priced talents have selected their destinations, but there are dozens (and dozens) of impact players searching for new homes.
Some will pick Pac-12 campuses and thus offer exponentially more certainty to the conference race. But the process will take weeks.
As such, the following projections will be updated in early June, following transfer portal agreements and NBA draft stay-or-go decisions.
1. Gonzaga
As noted above, the Zags are less than a lock to win the inaugural conference race given the roster’s current state of quasi-flux. They need wing Isiah Harwell (from Houston) to play to his potential; forward Braden Huff to return to pre-injury form; wing Davis Fogle to emerge as Gonzaga’s next great player (as we expect); and four-star recruit Luca Foster to contribute consistently. Whether the Zags morph into a true Final Four contender hinges, to a large extent, on who else joins the roster.
2. Utah State
This selection is rooted less in evidence and more in faith – faith that the Aggies will continue their winning ways despite yet another coaching change. That said, they didn’t exactly hire a rookie. Ben Jacobsen has been one of the top mid-major coaches for 20 years (at Northern Iowa) and should maximize the resources and recruiting base that have propelled Utah State to the NCAA Tournament in five of the past six seasons. Will the Aggies be to Gonzaga in the Pac-12 what Saint Mary’s was in the West Coast Conference?
3. San Diego State
A full rebuild is underway for coach Brian Dutcher, which explains SDSU’s third-place outlook. Myles Byrd, BJ Davis, Pharoah Compton, Magoon Gwath have all departed for greener pastures. Dutcher’s recovery efforts depend on the dollars available through the Aztecs’ NIL game and finding the right mix of players. Guard Nick Anderson, from Rice, is a nice start. (He averaged 15.5 points in the American). We aren’t worried about the defense, but SDSU’s offensive efficiency last season was 99th nationally, per the Pomeroy ratings. That won’t be good enough to overtake Gonzaga.
4. Oregon State
No development this spring has been more surprising than the dollars dangled by OSU in pursuit of a winning roster. The Beavers are spending money, and it shows: Their transfer class ranked 29th nationally with five players secured for first-year coach Justin Joyner, including Fresno State’s DeShawn Gory and BYU’s Xavion Staton. That placement is unlikely to hold up through the full portal cycle, but no matter. Joyner has a rotation that can compete. It’s up to him to make sure it does.
5. Boise State
Like SDSU, the Broncos were gutted by the transfer portal and must start from scratch (or close to it) as they enter the Pac-12. Framed another way: The return of reserve Spencer Ahrens is the best news coach Leon Rice has received in recent weeks. (A close second: The arrival of Jerquarius Stanback, a defensive ace from Alabama State). Granted, Ahrens is a promising player, but the Broncos need more than the 6-foot-10 freshman – much more – if they hope to challenge for the conference title and NCAA Tournament.
6. Colorado State
The Rams lost top scorer Brandon Rechsteiner to the portal (and then to Kansas State) but have thus far avoided the carnage visible at SDSU and Boise State. That’s not even half the challenge facing second-year coach Ali Farokhmanesh, however. He must limit additional damage and find enough playmakers to give CSU a chance to navigate the new conference. As of now, it’s a second-level roster.
7. Washington State
The first season of the rebuilt Pac-12 could be a make-or-break season for WSU coach David Riley, whose stewardship of the program through two years in the West Coast Conference (15-21 in league play) did not inspire much confidence that he can produce a winner in what will undoubtedly be a more rigorous league. That said, Riley pulled a Horned Frog out of his hat earlier this week with a commitment from TCU guard RJ Jones.
8. Fresno State
A pecking order of sorts was established this week when Gory, after a promising rookie season in The Valley, entered the portal and materialized in Corvallis. The intra-conference move seemingly reflects a challenging financial situation for coach Vance Walberg and the Bulldogs. Anything better than seventh place should be considered a successful season based on the current state of the roster.
9. Texas State
Pardon our quick change into Captain Obvious, but the Bobcats have the most difficult transition into the Pac-12, and it’s not particularly close. Their previous home, the Sun Belt, simply was not on the same level as the WCC or Mountain West. Then again, competitive tiers are easily scaled with the appropriate NIL infusion. Continuity atop the program with veteran coach Terrence Johnson should help.