As Oregon burns and gamblers bet, lawmakers push back against wildfire betting markets drawing millions
As Oregon surpassed its wildfire acreage record over the weekend with more than 2 million acres burned, Oregon lawmakers also raised a new wildfire concern Monday as prediction markets continue to allow people to place bets on wildfires, saying it could lead to more human-caused fires.
In a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets, Sen. Jeff Merkley led lawmakers from other wildfire-stricken states and Sen. Ron Wyden in urging the agency to crack down on wildfire-related contracts. The group warned the markets could create financial incentives for arson and criticized what they described as profiteering from disasters affecting vulnerable communities.
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” the lawmakers wrote to Commission Chair Michael Selig.
“By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading.”
The senators pointed to prediction market platforms, including Polymarket, which have attracted millions of dollars in wildfire-related wagers. According to the letter, more than $1 million was wagered on the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires alone.
Contracts have allowed users to bet on how long wildfires will burn, how much damage they will cause and how large they will become.
As Oregon sets records during what is already its worst wildfire season on record, Wyden and Merkley argued the practice should be prohibited.
It is not the first time the senators have raised concerns about prediction markets. Both have previously criticized platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi for allowing wagers on a range of events, including elections, international conflicts, tariffs and other government actions.
“Gambling on U.S. elections is a bad bet for our democracy,” Merkley said in 2024. “Effective immediately, huge Wall Street firms can open trading to the wealthy so they can bet millions on which party controls the House or Senate.”
Wildfires are not the only natural disaster Polymarket allows users to bet on. In an active market on their website better can choose “yes” or “no” to whether a Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the U.S, a volcano erupts or an earthquake occurs.
The market has garnered over $232,000 in bets. Another market has collected over $17,000 in bets on whether Oregon will reach the “exceptional drought” stage by August 31.
The lawmakers gave the trade commission until Aug. 14 to respond to a list of questions, including whether it would consider banning wildfire betting and what plans it has to curb the practice.