Public school enrollment falls across WA

The number of students in Washington’s public schools fell by 9,000 this school year, the biggest single-year drop since enrollment began emerging from pandemic-era lows, according to new state data shared Thursday.

Statewide, public school enrollment is about 50,000 students lower than it was in the 2019-20 school year, when COVID-19 upended society and schools.

The ongoing decline is concerning for school districts, whose funding is generally tied to enrollment. Some districts have already had to make budget cuts while others are considering adding new programs to bring back students who’ve left the public school system for private schools, home schooling, or other alternatives.

In October, 1.096 million Washington students were enrolled in prekindergarten through 12th grade, according to data from the office of superintendent of public instruction. That’s down from 1.105 million students enrolled in 2024-25.

Enrollment fell in some of the state’s largest districts, including Kent, Seattle, Tacoma and Vancouver. Enrollment at Seattle Public Schools this year is down about 280, according to the district.

A nearly 800-student enrollment drop and federal funding losses forced the Kent School District to cut its budget by about $7.1 million.

Other Washington school districts could feel similar pressure this month, when the state matches funding to actual enrollment instead of estimates. That could create short-term cash flow problems for districts with significantly fewer students than expected. Persistent enrollment declines could lead to staffing reductions, district boundary reconfigurations, school closures and consolidations.

In 2024, Seattle considered closing schools in part because of falling enrollment, but scrapped the plan after significant parent pushback.

But the district, which had a net gain of 14 students last school year, is looking at bright spots: This year’s incoming kindergarten class is bigger than the previous year’s class – for the first time in five years, according to interim Superintendent Fred Podesta.

Still, the incoming kindergarten class remains smaller than the outgoing 12th -grade class.

“You are not replacing the kids who are graduating,” Podesta said, adding that the forecast remains either a decline or flatline.

“What we want to focus on is kindergarten enrollment,” he said. “It went up a little bit. We are seeing that as room for encouragement.”

The number of students attending private or home schools increased this year, with 83,657 students in private schools and 31,664 in home schools, according to Thursday’s OSPI data.

Still, 90% of students statewide are enrolled in public schools, said Chris Reykdal, Washington superintendent of public instruction.

He attributed the majority of the decline to lower birthrates, and pointed to OSPI data noting that nearly 10,000 fewer first graders were enrolled in public schools statewide this school year than 10 years ago.

The declining birthrate will ripple through school systems for years, Reykdal said at a Wednesday town hall in Bellevue on school funding. He noted that even small enrollment decreases can have a substantial impact on individual schools, as the same structural services are required.

“Marginally losing students doesn’t seem like a big deal; it’s everything in schools,” Reykdal said Wednesday. Even a single class going from 25 to 24 students can drastically change the per-student calculus, he said.

“You still need the full teacher for 24 kids,” Reykdal said. “You are still turning (on) the lights, you are still doing the heat, you are still running the school bus, you’re still paying for insurance costs.”

Public school enrollment nationwide has been declining, with the National Center for Education Statistics projecting a 4% drop between 2020 and 2030. That same estimate anticipated an 8% decline in elementary and secondary school enrollment during that period.

While declining birthrates are a significant factor, Thomas Dee, a professor at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Education, said there are additional forces at play. He pointed to larger demographic shifts, and a student exodus to private schools, home schooling and other options.

Dee said it’s notable that public schools generally have not recovered from pandemic-era drops.

“Public schools haven’t been able to reengage the substantial number of families and students they lost during the pandemic,” Dee said. “How many schools have been closed? How many teachers have been laid off? We are five years away from a substantial exodus of students from public schools, and that creates enormous financial pressure for districts.”

Northshore School District in Bothell, which draws students from South Snohomish and North King County, is also down 179 students, with 22,753 students this year after a steady climb after the Great Recession to 2020, according to state data.

The district had ample warning from a demographer that a decline – or at least a flatline – was on the horizon because of the dropping birthrate, said Sandy Hayes, a school board member who represents District 4.

“That’s tracking across the state and the county,” she said. “Most of our comprehensive high schools are at capacity, and it’s our elementary schools that are underenrolled.”

Not every district saw declines this school year. Bellevue’s enrollment grew by 216 students, according to state data.

District officials said they are seeing increased enrollment from students who live in and outside the district, attracting about 300 students who don’t live within its boundaries.

Superintendent Kelly Aramaki credited a combination of new academic programs, such as dual language programs in Arabic, Korean and Japanese at elementary schools, and a parent partnership program that allows home-schooled children to participate in district programs. The district’s high schools have also been a draw for parents, he said.

“I think it matches what’s happening nationwide, which is (that) people want more diversity in educational offerings,” Aramaki said. “If we can build diversity in offerings, more people will come back to the public education sphere or choose public education.”

La Center has also seen its enrollment push past its prepandemic level to 1,767 students in December, according to the district’s figures.

The Clark County district, which shed students to home schooling during the first full pandemic school year, rebounded from the loss the following year. Kindergarten enrollment, however, was lower than expected, Superintendent Peter Rosenkranz said.

Rosenkranz attributed the growth to spillover from the Ridgefield school system and La Center’s focus on academics over social and political issues like student pronouns and gender identity.

The district has been embroiled in a legal dispute with OSPI over whether its policy not to ask students their pronouns violates the state’s gender-inclusive policy.

“We have taken a really strong stance on reading and math and academics – not the other stuff,” he said. “We are here to work with families, not to exclude them from their (children’s) education. I believe that’s attracting more people who feel they can trust La Center because we are not going to hide things from the parents.”

Rosenkranz said “it’s an oversimplification” to attribute enrollment losses across the state to birthrate declines. Families, he said, are scared to send their children to public schools when they see low test scores and debates over nonacademic issues.

“I think parents want an honest conversation,” he said.