The USMNT fell short at the World Cup, but were odds and expectations unrealistic?

The manner of the United States men’s national team’s World Cup exit raises a discussion point about the way it was discussed at the tournament.

Dreams came crashing down as the U.S. suffered a humiliating 4-1 defeat to Belgium, ending its run in the tournament at the round of 16. This was not the outcome anyone associated with the co-hosts had envisaged after such a positive run to that point.

Indeed, the U.S. had been a force to be reckoned with. Comfortable victories over Paraguay, Australia and Bosnia and Herzegovina had fueled belief that they could reach the quarterfinals of a World Cup for the first time since 2002.

But many of the same old issues came to the fore, and coach Mauricio Pochettino’s team was made to look grossly out of its depth.

It leads us to consider whether they were overrated, after all.

Did supporters and betting markets get carried away by over-indexing a handful of results against – in hindsight – poor opposition?

Before the tournament began, the U.S. was available at 66-1 to win the World Cup, but that quickly dropped. After the impressive opening 4-1 Paraguay win, the odds for success were 40-1. After the next win against Australia, 33-1.

By the time the USMNT had beaten Bosnia 2-0 in the round of 32, its odds were slashed to 30-1.

There was hope, momentum and real expectation that the U.S. would go on to beat Belgium to land in the quarterfinals. The evidence had been considered as strong, yet in hindsight Australia were a limited team. They are ranked 32nd for expected goals at the World Cup and posed little attacking threat when they met.

Defeat to Turkey to finish the group campaign might have been a reality check had it not been for the match being a dead rubber. The U.S. was already through to the knockout rounds – and Pochettino took the opportunity to rest his entire first-choice lineup with the exception of Weston McKennie.

This allowed the side to stay fresh for their last-32 meeting with Bosnia and Herzegovina. It might have been a factor in the way Pochettino’s team was able to see out the match with 10 men, even scoring a second goal to cap a 2-0 victory after the controversial red card to Folarin Balogun.

Like Australia, though, Bosnia was limited. It ranked a lowly 37th for big chances created over the course of the World Cup, and struggled to impose itself on most of the four matches it played at the tournament.

And yet the manner of the U.S. performances did suggest it could do something special. The 4-1 demolition of Paraguay in their opening match had been a blistering performance, and had Pochettino’s team performed at that level against Belgium on Monday, it surely could have made it through.

But it was somewhat overlooked that, talent-wise, the U.S. was facing a difficult battle in that tie. Belgium have star quality and pedigree that was overlooked because of their performances to that point.

The odds continued to favor the U.S. and the feel-good factor of the moment had played a big part.

Heading into the Belgium game, Pochettino’s side were odds-on to advance, albeit barely. And yet they unraveled on the night, with Belgium asserting authority from the very first minute.

A 4-1 scoreline was so unthinkable that it could have been backed at 70-1 ahead of kick-off. And the price of a Charles De Ketelaere brace was priced at a high of 20-1.

As it turned out, he made easy work of the U.S. defense to score both his goals on the night.

The USMNT must examine the root cause of what went wrong and consider just how far it has truly come. What looked like a breakthrough for American soccer instead became another reminder of how far it still has to go to join the sport’s elite.

Pochettino asked “Why not us?” before the World Cup. Ultimately, he got an empathic answer.