A Grip on Sports: Even The Swami or Nostradamus would have trouble trying to decipher college football’s muddled middle these days
A GRIP ON SPORTS • July is college football’s look-ahead month. Thirty-one days of speculation. Of predictions. Of hope, dread or ambivalence, depending on how “your” team is expected to be. These days, though, July seems less about the season ahead and more of a Rorschach test of each fan’s personality.
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• There will be 138 schools playing FBS football in the fall. Of that, probably 10% are assured of being really good and another 10% might be. The other 80%? One or two could jump into the top groups. The rest? Enjoy the small victories.
There’s a problem, though. Or maybe it’s a strength. No one – and by that I mean no one – can say with any definitive certainty where their school fits in.
The sport’s new era, powered by NIL, a portal and Monster Energy drinks, has upended the prediction models. Everyone, even the Blue Bloods, experiences turnover somewhat akin to the fields around Pullman in early September.
The top of the pyramid is occupied by schools who posted good records last season and retained much of their rosters. Added a piece here or there. Schools like Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia, who each return 14 starters. Or schools, such as Ohio State, LSU and Alabama, who should be able fill the cupboards with talent, even if inflation runs rampart throughout the industry.
But no one – and by that I mean no one – can know for sure how the new roster will mesh, for bad or good. Not even the coaches in the football offices.
Which leaves July for optimism. Or depression. Depending on your point of view.
What Curt Cignetti has done at Indiana gives everyone hope. What Lincoln Riley has done at USC doesn’t. Most everyone else is stuck in-between.
Washington State is a great case study. Or will be this fall.
The Cougars lost another coach in the offseason. Jimmie Rogers bolted for Iowa State in December, one year after pledging fealty to Cougar Nation. In steps Kirby Moore, a somewhat-local product with a deeper knowledge of the area and the needs of the WSU community. But no experience as a head coach. And a roster in flux, which is basically the way for everyone these days.
Moore hired a staff. Retained part of last season’s roster. Cast a wide net to fill the rest. And has spent every day since he stepped on campus 10 days before Christmas building a team.
But that isn’t the only challenge. The Cougars are back in a conference. The name’s the same but the opponents, other than Oregon State, are different then they have ever been. That might not have a tremendous bearing on Moore’s rebuilding process but it has to have some.
Throw everything into ChatGPT and ask “What will Washington State’s football record by in 2026?” and watch it explode. Not even AI is silly enough to hazard a guess. Or it will at least ask for more input, such as the name of the starting quarterback. And whether the starter in the Apple Cup will be the same one that starts against Oregon State a month later.
OK, sure, Vegas has its thoughts. The total: 4.5. As in you bet the number and the Cougars win five games, you collect. They win four? You know. But no one really does, do they? Know, I mean. In July, it’s always going to be a heartfelt bet. Not one with any sort of real calculation behind it. Too many variables.
Which leaves it up to you. Look at the muddled picture. What do you see? Is the ink blot a crimson-tinged celebration or just a reminder of squashed hopes?
• I know what I was looking at last night while taking in the Mariners’ game. You probably do to, if you wasted your time watching. The word that comes to mind is “flailing.” And, no, I didn’t misspell “failing,” though the two were interchangeable.
The number of swings that brought flashbacks to Pedro Cerrano had to be somewhere in the middle double digits. Heck, Colt Emerson had at least a half dozen himself in the 2-0 defeat.
Frustration has replaced hope, hasn’t it? But that seems to be the story in every American League city this season. A league without a dominate team. A league with a whole bunch of clubs thinking they are still in the race. A league of mainly buyers, which drives up prices and, more than likely, drives Jerry Dipoto away.
But, hey, Matt Brash and Brendan Donovan have to get healthy at some point. That’s just like making a big trade, isn’t it?
That may just be the message over the next few weeks. A message that is more like one of Emerson’s swings last night than Cal Raleigh’s from last year.
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WSU: Around in the Pac-12, the women’s basketball race will feature a group of well-balanced teams. … Colorado State and Utah State have multiple players in the NBA’s Las Vegas Summer League. For more coverage, check out Theo Lawson’s story linked in the Gonzaga section. … Around the West Coast and the nation, it sure seems as if Pat Chun sees college athletics’ glass as half-empty these days. That probably doesn’t come as a surprise to folks in Pullman. That his department is projecting a budget deficit sort of fits as well. … The Washington women were the best in the Big Ten overall. And UCLA’s Lauren Betts was the conference’s best female athlete. What conference did they used to be in again? … The Big 12’s football media days continued, with Colorado, Utah, Arizona State and Arizona making appearances the second day. The Wildcats, who play in Pullman this season, are pushing their quarterback in the Heisman race.
Gonzaga: Theo and I have something in common. We both will be in Las Vegas this weekend. Theo is working, covering the local players in the NBA’s Summer League. Between the Zags and the Cougars, there are enough to put together a complete roster. … Courtney Vandersloot is back playing, coming off her ACL injury and trying to help Chicago win.
EWU and Idaho: Around the Big Sky, Montana State has revamped its men’s basketball coaching staff. And the changes have a Spokane flavor. Former Ferris standout Shamrock Campbell has been promoted from the ops position to an assistant coach. And former Whitworth women’s coach Kenny Love has reunited with Matt Logie after helping him with the men’s program at Whitworth. … Yes, Montana’s football stadium is 40 years old. But it’s changed a lot in that time. … Utah Tech’s first Big Sky football game is at home. Against defending FCS champion Montana State. In August.
Whitworth: The Pirate football suffered a tragedy over the Fourth of July weekend. Offensive lineman Tanner Hart died after suffering a fall while skateboarding. Mathew Callaghan has the 20-year-old’s obituary in today’s S-R.
Indians: You can blame me if you like. Writer’s curse and all that. But Spokane’s 10-2 loss in Eugene last night is more on the pitching staff than anything I wrote yesterday. Dave Nichols has all the details in this story.
Mariners: We mentioned the M’s 2-0 loss to Miami in passing above. Linked the game story too. Do it again here. … Also mentioned, and linked, the Donovan news. Of which there is little in the way of advancement. He has yet to begin a rehab assignment. … Bryan Woo might throw out of the bullpen this weekend with the break coming up.
Sounders: Defender Jackson Ragen was the only Seattle player picked for the MLS All-Star game.
Seahawks: The team’s sale might just be discussed this week.
World Cup: Yes, the expectations of the U.S. in this tournament were overblown. The way the team left it, though, was awful. Both can be true. … Christian Pulisic suffered a microfracture in the loss. … Belgium is not letting go of the anger over the red card decision. … Only one of France and Morocco can move on to the semifinals today. That is also true. It is a rematch from the last World Cup’s semifinals. … The Mexico loss to England match was watched by more people than the U.S. defeat against Belgium. Maybe the U.S. soccer-watching habits are changing.
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• Headed out this afternoon. Flying in the summer is not my favorite pastime. Neither is landing in Las Vegas, land of the 110-degree high temp. But spending time coaching young basketball players is and that’s what awaits. As of now, it looks as if I’ll be able to be here every day despite the tournament games. Until later …
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• Photos: The Spokesman-Review, Getty Images, Tribune News Service, Whitworth, Washington State