World Cup semifinals bracket predictions: Picking the winners and key players for final four

After 100 matches at the 2026 World Cup, four teams are left standing.

Kylian Mbappe and France overcame Morocco. Lamine Yamal and Spain eased past Belgium. Jude Bellingham helped England eliminate Erling Haaland’s Norway in extra time. Lionel Messi and defending champions Argentina became the last team into the semifinals by defeating Switzerland, with the help of a stunning extra-time strike from Julian Alvarez.

The ties will kick off on Tuesday and Wednesday with the final taking place on Sunday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey (and a bronze-medal match the day before in Miami).

Is the tournament bound for another France-Argentina final, with Messi sailing into the sunset as a two-time winner?

Or will Mbappe secure his second title and rise the ranks of the greatest World Cup performers?

Perhaps the other two contenders, Spain and England, nations rich in soccer history, but only one title each will return to the mountaintop?

Here are some of the biggest takeaways as we head into the semifinals.

Best quarterfinals performance?

Thom Harris: A Ballon d’Or winner can hardly go “under the radar,” but Rodri has been quietly rediscovering his most dominant form at the heart of the Spanish midfield. He was everywhere against Belgium, putting out fires all across the pitch with the unmatched sense of anticipation and positioning that makes him so good at playing the holding midfield role. He has also completed more passes and carried the ball further than any player at the tournament so far, just as crucial to their patient possession play.

Lukas Weese: Kylian Mbappe. Not only did he score against Morocco but he took three Moroccan defenders with him, creating space for Dembele, who ultimately extended the France lead. Mbappe continues to elevate his level in this tournament.

James Horncastle: Jude Bellingham. England put in an understandably tired performance against Norway. They were also confusing. Bellingham rose above it, as he so often does. As was the case at the Azteca. As was the case when England reached the final of the Euros in 2024, Bellingham grasped the nettle. Name an England player in history with more big game aura?

Are best teams left?

Harris: The official FIFA World Ranking table says yes, so who are we to disagree? In all seriousness, all four sides have world-class match-winning talent, and incredible strength in depth throughout the rest of their squad. They probably are the four strongest sides.

Weese: I’d say yes. To use the NCAA Tournament equivalent, it’s as if four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. This is a quartet of soccer powers with star players aplenty. It should provide a compelling conclusion to a memorable World Cup.

Phil Hay: I’d say so. In fact, definitely. I went back through all 48 qualifiers and I can’t see a side who deserved to get much further than they did. The exception is probably Norway. They were good enough to merit a place in the last four – but that doesn’t mean England don’t deserve to be there, because they do.

Key to the semis

Harris: Spain have only conceded once this entire tournament, but they have yet to face a truly devastating center-forward who can attack their brave rest-defense structure with searing pace. It’s an unoriginal choice, but Kylian Mbappe could decide the first tie if he can time his runs in behind.

The second semifinal features two other players in the race for the Golden Boot in Messi and Kane, but Bellingham only continues to illustrate his importance to this England side. Not just the critical goals, but the lung-busting runs to open up spaces for others and his defensive intensity in midfield.

Weese: I’ll go with Marc Cucurella in the first semi-final. He will have the primary assignment of Kylian Mbappe on the left flank. Spain’s conceded one goal so far this tournament. Cucurella will need to be sharp defensively.

In the second semifinal, I’ll go with Bellingham. He has braces in back-to-back games. If he can be a force in the midfield and go on the attack against a vulnerable Argentina defense, England has a chance to advance to the World Cup final for the first time since 1966.

Seb Stafford-Bloor: To go slightly left field, Dayot Upamecano will need to have a very good game if France are to advance. The case for Mbappe or Olise writes itself, but so much happens in the Spanish attacking midfield and the team as a whole controls the ball so well, that the French are going to have to reach a new defensive standard in a game that will likely look different to all their others so far. England vs. Argentina? Declan Rice. His withdrawal against Norway at halftime was presumably forced, but his team was nowhere near as balanced or convincing without him. He has to play against Argentina and he has to play well.

Pick the finalists

Harris: France vs. England. But it’s a 50-50 for me between Argentina and England – there are too many players who could potentially decide a game with a moment of quality.

Weese: France vs. Argentina. The 2022 World Cup final was an absolute epic and arguably one of the best in the tournament’s history. Sometimes you get a sequel like “The Godfather Part II.” If it’s France and Argentina again, I have a feeling it could rival the 2022 version, given what Mbappe and Messi are doing.

Horncastle: Spain vs. Argentina. Daring to be different here. Do I really believe it? No. Although have you seen Luis de la Fuente’s record in tournaments? And Spain can keep the ball away from France’s attackers. As unconvincing as Argentina have been at times, they have Messi and so, so many intangibles. England will likely be tired after playing at altitude in Mexico and going to extra-time in Miami.