Gonzaga whacked by Saint-Supery departure but remains a (narrow) favorite over Utah State | Pac-12 projections
An otherwise forgettable weekend in the dead of summer, long after NBA draft and transfer portal decisions have been finalized, is hardly the expected time for a lineup-altering, trajectory-changing development.
But Gonzaga delivered a mid-July stunner on Saturday when point guard Mario Saint-Supery left the program to return home and join the Spanish club Valencia for the upcoming season – and for a hefty payday.
The move leaves the Zags with a void at the most important position, limited options to replace Saint-Supery and an increasing level of vulnerability in their first season in the rebuilt Pac-12.
With Saint-Supery on the floor, they were the clear favorite.
Without him … not so much.
Gonzaga is fairly well set elsewhere with the return of forward Braden Huff and wing Davis Fogle, plus the arrival of guard Isiah Harwell from Houston and center Massamba Diop from Arizona State.
But it now lacks the connective tissue that can only be provided by an experienced point guard.
Coach Mark Few will undoubtedly scour the list of players remaining in the transfer portal, and a recent court ruling could provide options. (The decision grants eligibility to a slew of players who were seniors last season.)
Few has uncovered diamonds in the past, after all.
But until the Zags fill the void, their perch atop the new Pac-12 – it could be the best basketball conference outside the Power Five leagues – looks vastly more fragile than it did just a few days ago.
In fact, there’s a solid case for Utah State as the co-favorite. If the Zags are 1A within the conference hierarchy, the Aggies are clearly 1B.
Here’s our updated look at the Pac-12 race based on portal decisions and roster moves since our initial forecast in the middle of April.
1. Gonzaga
The unwanted attrition wasn’t limited to Saint-Supery. The Zags also lost German guard Jack Kayil, who opted for the NBA draft, thereby creating a double-whammy on the perimeter. With Huff, Fogle and Diop, the frontcourt should be stellar. And if Harwell, a former blue-chip recruit who played a limited role for Houston, morphs into a consistent scorer, four of the five positions will be set. But when your greatest weakness is the most important position, the upside turns lower and the downside deeper. Few has four months to work his roster magic.
2. Utah State
We gave serious consideration to slotting the Aggies on top – the Hotline does not pick ties, ever – given the return of guard Mason Falslev, perhaps the best player in the conference, and forward Karson Templin, plus the addition of several double-digit scorers from the transfer portal. Ultimately, our faith that Utah State would keep winning through another coaching change, to Ben Jacobsen (from Northern Iowa), was exceeded only by the belief that Few would cobble his way to a respectable situation at the point. But don’t be surprised if the Aggies are with Gonzaga step-for-step through what should be a riveting race.
3. Oregon State
The Beavers are spending money, and it shows: Their transfer class ranks second in the Pac-12 behind Gonzaga, according to 247Sports, with nine players secured for first-year coach Justin Joyner. The newcomers include Daniel Freitag (Buffalo), Xavion Staton (BYU), Chris Johnson (UCF) and DeShawn Gory (Fresno State). Add returnee Josiah Lake II, a first-team all-West Coast Conference pick last season, and the Beavers have more than enough production to emerge as the best of the rest in their rebuilt conference.
4. San Diego State
This is a somewhat jarring projection, even for the Hotline – and we’re responsible! – but there is no denying the depletion of SDSU’s roster since the end of last season. Yes, the Aztecs lost the core four (Myles Byrd, BJ Davis, Pharaoh Compton and Magoon Gwath), but their most impactful replacement is no longer available: transfer Nick Anderson sustained a serious knee injury in May and could miss the entire season. Coach Brian Dutcher has frequently crafted a whole that exceeds the individual parts. But the 2027 season will be one of his greatest challenges.
5. Colorado State
The Rams avoided the roster carnage visible at SDSU and Boise State but have several obstacles in their path to a top-tier finish, including voids created by the departures of top scorer Brandon Rechsteiner and point guard Jevin Muniz. But second-year coach Ali Farokhmanesh managed to add Justin Menard from Marist and has several veterans returning. The Pac-12 seemingly has well-defined top and bottom tiers and only nine teams, which means the range of finishes for CSU is limited.
6. Boise State
Our outlook for the Broncos has darkened since April due to heavy attrition – coach Leon Rice is essentially staring at a full rotation overhaul. The return of forwards Pearson Carmichael and Spencer Ahrens and the arrival of Jerquarius Stanback, a defensive ace from Alabama State, provide a foundation that is, alas, wobbly. We see a very real chance that one of the most consistent programs in the Mountain West loses competitive ground in its new conference. But as long as football thrives, all is well in Boise.
7. Washington State
Coach David Riley’s stewardship of the program through two years in the West Coast Conference (15-21 in league play) does not inspire confidence that he can produce a winner in what will undoubtedly be a more rigorous conference. In fact, we view 2026-27 as a make-or-break year for Riley, whose roster was gutted by the transfer portal. Success depends heavily on the play of RJ Jones from TCU and Casey Jones from Eastern Washington. (They are not related.) Anything better than sixth place will be an achievement for WSU that should earn Riley another year. Anything less, and a coaching change could be coming.
8. Fresno State
The loss of DeShawn Gory after a promising rookie season to Oregon State reflects the challenge facing Fresno State and coach Vance Walberg on the talent-acquisition front. (They also lost Jake Heidbreder, who averaged 17 points per game, to the eligibility clock.) The only reason we didn’t peg the Bulldogs for last place is their familiarity with the level of competition, which is not the case for the team picked ninth.
9. Texas State
The Bobcats have the most difficult transition into the Pac-12, and it’s not particularly close: Their previous home, the Sun Belt, simply was not on the same level as the WCC or Mountain West. The quest for relevance hinges on sophomore forward DJ Hall, who averaged 15.6 points and 7.7 rebounds and could be one of the Pac-12’s best players. But is his supporting cast up to the task? We’re skeptical.