Will Mariners still win AL West? Bold predictions for season’s second half

SEATTLE – In the failed seasons of the past, going into the All-Star break only 1½ games out of first place in the American League West would’ve been more than acceptable, if not ideal, for the Mariners.

Yes, a team with a losing record is in second place in a division. Welcome to the 2026 American League where only five of the 15 teams are above .500.

But the circumstances surrounding this season are different. Given last season’s success in the postseason, with largely the same roster returning for 2026, along with what were supposed to be needed upgrades, a 48-49 record at the break and sitting 1½ games back in the division are something worse than suboptimal. The Mariners have a 27-20 record at home, a 21-29 record on the road and a 17-9 record against AL West opponents.

“Obviously, we’re all frustrated by our inconsistencies and the path that we took to get here,” Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told the Seattle Times in an interview. “We’re better than we’ve played, and I believe there’s not a single person that would respond differently if asked.”

But it goes beyond record or even stats, which from an offensive standpoint are, well, underwhelming to abysmal.

It’s how the Mariners have played to this point to reach this sub-.500 record. They have been maddeningly inconsistent, which comes from playing a disjointed, sloppy brand of baseball with far too many mistakes in the field and on the bases.

And the hitting, particularly with runners in scoring position, has been ineffectual and lackluster. They are still heavily reliant on the home run, but rank 15th in baseball with 115 homers on the season.

Injuries have played a role in this underwhelming start. Brendan Donovan, their key acquisition last offseason, has played in only 26 games. Cal Raleigh missed six weeks with an oblique strain. Matt Brash has made just 20 appearances due to multiple trips to the injured list with a lat strain. Julio Rodríguez didn’t play in the final nine games going into the break because of a concussion.

Add it all together, and you get a first half that was, as a Mariners fan put it – demoralizing.

But the first half also wasn’t determinant for the Mariners’ second-half success.

This is the first time since 2019 that they don’t have a winning record at the All-Star break. But the Mariners have only been in first place at the break once in that span. That was in 2024 when they held a one-game lead over the Astros, but were also in the midst of a 30-day freefall where they blew a 10-game lead in the division. The Mariners lost the lead in the first game after the break and manager Scott Servais was fired a month later.

The Mariners may have underachieved for the first 97 games, but it’s instructive to remember that they still have 65 remaining on the schedule. Logically, they could retake the lead in the AL West for two weeks, lose the lead for two weeks and still win by four or five games.

The Rangers (49-47) and Astros (47-51) appear to be just as inconsistent and probably more flawed than the Mariners.

Seattle has one of the easier schedules remaining, including the final 12 games of the season that include three against the Rockies and seven against the Angels.

Another reason for some optimism is that the roster should be getting better. Rodríguez is expected to return from the injured list Friday. Donovan started a rehab assignment Wednesday and could return in the days after the break. Brash and Cooper Criswell are also expected to return in August.

The Mariners will also add some help at the trade deadline.

But for Seattle to have real success in the second half, they need three of their expected contributors – Rodríguez, Raleigh and Josh Naylor – to rally from what have been subpar seasons.

Their numbers:

Rodríguez: 87 games, 378 plate appearances, .259/.323/.424 slash line, 14 doubles, 15 homers, 40 RBI, 12 stolen bases, 29 walks, 79 strikeouts.

Raleigh: 65 games, 280 plate appearances, .169/.271/.310 slash line, seven doubles, nine homers, 29 RBI, 35 walks, 91 strikeouts.

Naylor: 90 games, 389 plate appearances, .252/.317/.354 slash line, 12 doubles, eight homers, 36 RBI, 18 stolen bases, 30 walks, 49 strikeouts.

Rodríguez’s overall numbers don’t look awful. But most of his power production came in May where he had seven doubles, 10 homers and 18 RBI. He had just four extra-base hits in June. He’s also traditionally put together strong second halves to his seasons.

Obviously, Raleigh isn’t going to replicate what he did last season. But he has to be something more than what he’s been thus far. How much of it was the World Baseball Classic? How much of it was the oblique issue? How much of it is the pressure of trying to be who he was last season? But given his track record, it’s unlikely he will continue to struggle this much.

Naylor hasn’t provided much in the way of slugging and hasn’t been great with runners in scoring position. But he was outstanding with the Mariners in the second half of last season.

It’s unlikely those three hitters will continue to produce at well-below career levels. Even if two of the three progress to the positive, it will be a major boost for the Mariners’ flailing offense.

Here are two bold second-half predictions from Adam Jude:

Prediction No. 1: The Mariners will again take a sizable swing at the trade deadline – and whiff. Over the past handful of years, no AL team has done more than the Mariners to transform their roster with summertime trades, and the sense here is they would love to find someone willing to swap Luis Castillo in exchange for a proven reliever. That would solve two of the Mariners’ issues – subtracting from a crowded rotation and reinforcing a thin bullpen – in one fell swoop. The problem, though, is not many teams will want (or can afford) to take on Castillo’s $24 million salary for 2027 (with a vesting option for ’28) – and even if the Mariners were to pay down some of his contract (or attach a prospect in the deal), the trade partners are limited. One potential landing spot, the New York Mets, don’t appear to be positioning themselves as sellers this summer, so a veteran reliever like Luke Weaver (under contract for $11 million in ’27) is likely not a realistic option. The Chicago Cubs are in need of pitching help, but there isn’t a clear path to a deal between the two teams there. Over the past decade, some of Dipoto’s best magic acts as the head of Seattle’s head of baseball ops has been his ability to trade what appeared to be un-tradeable contracts (see: Robinson Cano, Marco Gonzales, Evan White). If he wants to move Castillo, though, Dipoto might have to be more creative than ever.

Prediction No. 2: Somehow, the Mariners will find their way into the playoffs, and Michael Arroyo will figure into their postseason plans somehow. Arroyo, a 21-year-old right-handed hitter, had a sizzling first week with Triple-A Tacoma (playing, yes, in hitter-friendly conditions in Las Vegas), with two homers, two doubles and a 1.137 OPS in his first 32 plate appearances. A second baseman through the minors, Arroyo has played primarily left field in Tacoma so far, and he’s expected to get some reps in center and right to help expand his versatility. His calling card, though, is his hit tool, and one scout compared Arroyo to a right-handed version of Tampa Bay first baseman Jonathan Aranda – a player with no real home defensively but a bat you want in the lineup every day. By September, Arroyo could be a meaningful part of the Mariners’ solution against left-handed pitching.

Here are two bold predictions from Ryan Divish:

Prediction No. 1: The Mariners will win the American League West by five games and wrap it up while they are playing the Rockies in Denver.

They are so much better than they’ve shown this season. Logic says that can’t continue to play this poorly and have so many key players perform below expectations. Rodríguez will hit 20 homers in the second half, and Raleigh will somehow finish the season with more than 25 homers.

Also, the Astros will fall from the race because Yordan Álvarez will miss time and the Rangers bullpen will be their downfall.

Prediction No. 2: The Dodgers won’t win the World Series. They have everything set up to repeat. They have the best record in baseball. They are playing well and they have the best roster. They won’t win because there is too much going right for them right now.