Ex-Rep. George Santos probed for prediction market insider trading
NEW YORK – Disgraced ex-Rep. George Santos is facing a federal probe of insider trading over successful bets on a prediction market that he would not attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.
The convicted fraudster, who was pardoned by Trump and freed from prison, allegedly used the Kalshi prediction site to bet against his appearance after publicly boasting that he would attend the Feb. 24 speech, sources told several media outlets.
Kalshi reportedly notified federal prosecutors and officials with the agency that regulates prediction markets after identifying Santos as the person who made the winning bets.
It is unclear how much Santos bet or how much he won.
Santos was expelled from the House of Representatives even before he was convicted on fraud charges.
The self-proclaimed fashionista and social media influencer repeatedly vowed to attend the State of the Union, which came just four months after he was granted clemency by Trump.
With Santos insisting he would be present, Kalshi’s odds of Santos showing up soared to nearly 75%, meaning anyone who bet against his appearance would make a windfall of about $3 for every dollar wagered when he was a no-show.
As the speech kicked off, Santos announced he wouldn’t attend due to travel delays.
Kalshi and rival Polymarket allow users to place bets on all sorts of events, including sports, politics, weather and business events.
The sites’ rules bar people with inside information from participating because they could distort outcomes and cheat legitimate users. It’s also considered a violation of federal insider trading laws.
Ironically, some social media users accused Santos in real time of pulling a scam with the State of the Union head fake, and he even addressed the complaints on his podcast.
“I guess people lost money,” Santos said. “Some people made unexpected money.”
Santos scored a big upset when he won Long Island’s 3rd District district in 2022 as a Republican after inventing a bogus persona as a Wall Street dealmaker. He was sentenced to seven years in prison after pleading guilty to fraud and identity theft in 2024.
After serving just 84 days, he was ordered released by Trump, who called Santos a “rogue” but said he didn’t deserve a harsh sentence and should get credit for being a Republican and a strong supporter of his MAGA agenda.
Prediction markets have come under scrutiny as insider trading and other allegations of fraud have multiplied.
An American military service member who was involved in planning for the operation to capture Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro was charged after he allegedly made bets that Maduro would soon be ousted from power.
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