Marc A. Thiessen: Trump is 14 days from decisive victory in Iran

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump posted an image of himself with bombs exploding all around and a message for Iran: “They better get smart soon! … No more Mr. Nice Guy!”

It’s time to turn that picture into reality. If he decides to resume major combat operations and finish the job, Trump is just 14 days away from a decisive victory in Iran.

We are now in the third week of what was supposed to be a two-week ceasefire, which Trump announced to give the Iranian regime a chance to reach a deal to denuclearize and end the war. But Iran has proven unable or unwilling to sign an agreement.

Some look at Iran’s recalcitrance and argue that it proves the ceasefire was a mistake. That’s wrong. In fact, the ceasefire accomplished two important things: First, it allowed Trump to send warships through the Strait of Hormuz to impose the blockade that is crushing Iran economically. And second, it gave the U.S. military a chance to rearm and reload. According to retired Gen. Jack Keane, U.S. Central Command now has twice as much firepower at its disposal as it did at the start of the war.

Since the regime has demonstrated that it is not ready for peace, Trump should unleash that firepower – and end the war on America’s terms.

Continuing the blockade alone is not enough. It’s true the blockade is imposing enormous costs on Iran’s economy, but the regime clearly doesn’t care about those costs – or about the suffering of its people. This is a regime that just massacred tens of thousands of innocent Iranian protesters to maintain power. Iran’s leaders care about one thing: survival. And the blockade, however effective, does not threaten that. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ hard-line commander, Ahmad Vahidi, has consolidated power and is calling the shots. He is a dead-ender. There will be no deal as long as he remains in power.

Another option under discussion is to keep the blockade in place and then open the Strait of Hormuz by force. If the U.S. military opens the strait, the thinking goes, Iran will have to decide whether to fire at ships traveling under U.S. protection. If it does, that would give Trump the pretext to retaliate and resume combat operations.

That is too clever by half. The narrative will be that Trump’s effort to open the strait failed and he was dragged back into war. When combat resumes – and it must – it should come at Trump’s initiative, not Iran’s.

There are legitimate concerns that if Trump restarts military action, Iran will retaliate by striking energy targets in the territory of America’s Persian Gulf allies. But the fact that Iran retains the capability to do that after 40 days of bombardment is evidence that the U.S. military had not yet fully achieved its objectives when it suspended attacks three weeks ago.

The ceasefire took hold before Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of Centcom, could eliminate all the targets Trump had assigned him. He needs about two weeks to finish the job. The resumption of military action should start, as the last round of fighting did, with leadership strikes. Once Iran’s recalcitrant leaders and offensive capabilities have been devastated by a final barrage of strikes, Trump can then reopen the strait at much lower risk – allowing all but Iranian ships to pass. He can also focus more of the U.S. military’s capabilities on that mission, rather than holding some in reserve for a resumption of military action.

At that point, Trump will have other options, too: He can announce that he has accomplished all of the military tasks he set out at the start of the campaign – decisively setting back Iran’s ability to pursue nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and the export of terror across the region – and is suspending military strikes. Having reopened the strait, he can continue the blockade indefinitely and use it as pressure to force Iran to hand over any materials remaining from its battered nuclear program – what Trump calls the “nuclear dust.” He can threaten the destruction or seizure of Kharg Island to pressure Iran’s surviving leaders into a deal. And if they refuse, he can use covert action to support the Iranian people and undermine the regime from within, just like the U.S. successfully supported freedom movements across the world during the Cold War.

Here is the bottom line: The Iran war must end with a decisive victory. And that victory can only be achieved in one of two ways: Either Iran capitulates or the U.S. launches a final flurry of military strikes.

Trump has given the regime every opportunity to sue for peace, and it has rejected his overtures. It is admirable that Trump is taking his time. He understands that what he is doing is important and cannot be rushed. But it is also true that he cannot declare victory until either Iran cries uncle – or he finishes the job.