Andy Barth: Natural gas plants key to keeping electricity reliable in Northwest

The Pacific Northwest is barreling toward an electricity crisis and policymakers can no longer kick the can down the road. A comprehensive 2026 analysis by Energy and Environmental Economics makes one conclusion unmistakably clear: The region does not have enough reliable energy to meet future needs, and the gap is growing rapidly.

For decades, the Northwest has benefited from an abundance of low-cost hydropower and a reputation for reliability. That foundation is now under strain. Electricity demand is rising faster than expected, driven by population growth, transportation and building electrification, widespread adoption of air conditioning and large new industrial loads. Even with continued investments in energy efficiency, demand is accelerating.

At the same time, constant and consistent (firm) generating resources are being retired and replaced primarily with intermittent wind and solar and short-duration battery storage. These resources are essential for meeting clean energy goals, but they do not provide the same level of reliability during the Pacific Northwest’s most dangerous conditions: prolonged winter cold spells that coincide with low hydropower availability.

Hydropower supplies roughly half of the region’s electricity, yet its availability varies dramatically from year to year. E3’s modeling shows that the vast majority of reliability events occur during low water years, particularly in winter, when demand spikes and renewable output declines. These are not brief disruptions. Simulated loss-of-load events routinely last multiple days, with some exceeding 100 hours. January 2024 provided a real-world glimpse of these risks, with conditions resembling the low-hydro years that drive the most severe modeled shortfalls.

The numbers are sobering. The region moved from a narrow surplus in 2025 to a capacity shortfall starting in 2026. By 2030, the gap grows to nearly 9 gigawatts of effective capacity. By 2035, it reaches between 14 and 18 gigawatts (up to 18 Seattles). Even after accounting for projects under development, the region remains several gigawatts short of what is needed to meet basic reliability standards.

What makes this situation more troubling is that the region is not on track to close the gap. Utility resource plans show sufficient generation on paper, but achieving those plans would require building new infrastructure at four to five times the historical pace in the Northwest. Transmission constraints, interconnection backlogs, siting and permitting delays and uncertainty around resource adequacy rules all stand in the way. Without major institutional changes, these projects will not materialize fast enough.

The E3 analysis is clear-eyed about solutions. Energy efficiency, demand response, wind, solar and storage all play important roles, but none can solve the region’s core reliability challenge alone. Short-duration batteries and demand response cannot sustain output over multiday winter events. Wind and solar often underperform during extended cold snaps. Energy efficiency reduces demand but cannot eliminate the need for firm capacity.

As a result, E3 finds that some form of dispatchable, firm generation resource is required in nearly every plausible future scenario. In the near and medium term, new natural gas peaking capacity is the only commercially available option capable of filling this role at scale. These plants would operate infrequently, primarily to support clean energy resources and during extreme conditions, with utilization during extreme conditions declining over time as renewable resources expand. Prohibiting these resources does not meaningfully improve near-term emissions outcomes, but it does increase costs and amplify blackout risk.

For years, the energy industry has warned lawmakers and policy makers about these risks. The message has been consistent and grounded in data. What has been missing is urgency. Extreme and proactive action is needed now to remove barriers, accelerate infrastructure and align policy with physical reality. Without it, the region risks being legislated into blackouts rather than planning its way around them.

We must also be clear about values. We support clean energy, climate awareness and long term decarbonization, and the Pacific Northwest should continue to lead. But clean energy policy cannot come at the expense of human health today. When the grid fails during prolonged winter cold, the consequences are immediate and severe, including loss of heat, medical equipment failures, frozen water systems and heightened risk to vulnerable populations. Reliability is not optional. It is a public safety obligation.

The choice is no longer theoretical. Reliability decisions made today will determine whether the Pacific Northwest protects its people tomorrow.

Andy Barth is vice president of government and public affairs at Inland Power & Light in Spokane.