Linwood Laughy: Cracks widening in the lower Snake River dams

By Linwood Laughy

Cracks in the four lower Snake River dams? Not literally, but metaphorically weakening and widening.

Over the past five years, according to Army Corps of Engineers’ data, these dams combined generated an average of just 669 megawatts each year, a decline of 29% compared to average annual production over the previous 21 years. Of the total Pacific Northwest’s 26,145 MW power load, each dam now produces about six-tenths of 1% (0.6%).

Bonneville Power Administration’s 2026-28 wholesale price for electricity the agency sells to Pacific Northwest public utility districts is $40/MW hour.

Over the past 15 years, the cost of utility-scale solar energy has plummeted 85%. The Berkeley National Laboratory reports Power Purchase Agreements in the West (excluding California) provide power at around $24/MW hour.

Over the past decade, the cost of utility-scale battery storage has declined even more than that of solar energy. In some states, battery storage is now replacing natural gas-powered turbines as the preferred means of addressing peak electricity demand. Further, new hybrid installations combine solar with battery backup, which negates the argument that solar energy cannot provide firm power.

The U.S. Energy Administration reports that the Pacific Northwest has witnessed the slowest growth in solar energy of any region in the U.S. In a state-by-state comparison of the rate of renewable energy growth between the decades 2005-14 and 2015-24, the state of Washington comes in dead last.

Consider this as an explanation: BPA owns 75% of the Pacific Northwest’s transmission capacity, providing a near monopoly on transmission services. Since 2015, the developers of 469 large alternative energy projects have sought access to BPA’s transmission grid. Only one received approval.

In 2026, the state of Washington established a transmission authority with a mandate to expand Washington’s power transmission capabilities. State officials recognize the potential for tapping into cheap solar energy from the Southwest, wind energy from the Mountain West, as well as homegrown wind and solar. The state of Oregon is considering similar action.

Meanwhile, threatened and endangered Snake River salmon and steelhead numbers continue to fall. The Nez Perce Tribe’s Fisheries Department warns that a growing number of these fish stocks are approaching quasi-extinction. Washington, Oregon, four tribal nations and a number of conservation organizations are now back in federal court. Ordering extended spill as a preliminary measure, U.S. District Judge Michael Simon notes that wild salmon are “disappearing from the landscape.”

In a world with less snow, earlier runoffs, falling fish numbers and cheap solar energy, dark clouds have gathered over the Bonneville Power Administration. BPA’s costs of production are rising, while power output is falling. Solar energy, less and less intermittent, has become the West’s cheapest power source, with utility-scale prices well below BPA’s wholesale rate. The agency’s near monopoly on transmission appears to be slipping away.

A notable fish scientist, Dr. Rick Williams, recently opined “The lower Snake River dams will never be breached for biological reasons; they will only be breached for economic reasons.”

Like cracks in a dam, those economic reasons have arrived.

Linwood Laughy, of Moscow, Idaho, is a former chairman of the board of Advocates for the West, an environmental law firm based in Boise. He has lived much of his life near the Clearwater River in north central Idaho where he has observed the decline of wild salmon and steelhead for over 60 years.