El Niño may bring ‘below normal’ Atlantic hurricane season, but risks remain

Federal weather forecasters are predicting a “below normal” Atlantic hurricane season, even as they warn that the possibility of fewer overall storms doesn’t diminish the risk of a catastrophic landfall.

“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” Neil Jacobs, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told reporters Thursday. “We have had Category 5s make landfall in the past during below-average seasons.”

NOAA’s forecast projects eight to 14 named storms. As many as half a dozen are expected to develop into hurricanes, meaning sustained winds of 74 mph or stronger. The forecast also projects that one to three will become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher strength.

Officials said an El Niño weather pattern, which can make it harder for storms to organize and strengthen in the Atlantic basin, is a driving factor in the NOAA’s first below-average season prediction in more than a decade. But given the inherent uncertainties with how and when storms develop, the agency’s predictions are a game of probabilities.

NOAA said it has “70 percent confidence” in its predicted ranges. The agency said there is a 35 % chance for a “normal” season, which historically has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. And there is about a 10 % chance of above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

The agency’s officials also detailed additional tools on Thursday, some assisted by artificial intelligence, that they are rolling out in an effort to sharpen forecasts and give people more precise information about risks. Those additions include an updated version of the well-known “cone” graphic for storms that will include potential impacts to inland areas.

NOAA’s outlook is in line with others. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1.

Scientists at Colorado State University said last month that they anticipate the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season “will have somewhat below-normal activity.”

Its researchers predicted 13 named storms, of which they anticipated six to become hurricanes and two to become hurricanes of Category 3 or higher strength. That’s below the long-term seasonal average of 14 named storms, they said.

“We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” the CSU scientists wrote in explaining the lower probability for major hurricane landfalls this year. But even that came with a note of caution.

“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season,” they said.

Major forecasting firms, such as AccuWeather and Britain-based Tropical Storm Risk, have published similar forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.

Last year, for the first time in a decade, no hurricane made a direct hit on the United States – a stroke of fortune considering that of the 13 named storms that formed, several rapidly intensified into massive Category 5 hurricanes. Even so, the impacts of offshore storms caused multiple deaths in North Carolina and damaged property along the East Coast.

Looming over this year’s forecasts is the burgeoning El Niño pattern that scientists have been anticipating.

During a typical El Niño, a warming patch of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean influences which regions around the world experience droughts, floods, extreme heat, hurricanes and declining sea ice. During relatively rare “super El Niño” events, which happen about once every 10 to 15 years on average, the effects may be even more intense, persistent and widespread.

In 2023-2024, a moderate-to-strong El Niño occurred, with sea surface temperatures running 3 to 3.5 degrees above average in the Pacific. A return to neutral conditions, skewed slightly toward the cooler La Niña weather phase, ensued for much of 2025.

An El Niño has technically not yet begun, but Jacobs said Thursday that there is a 98 percent chance of El Niño conditions later this season and an 80 percent chance of an El Niño that is “moderate to strong.”

The El Niño’s impact across the planet could be profound, and similar patterns have wreaked havoc on humanity in the past. But at least along the Atlantic coast, its presence actually lowers the likelihood of an overly active storm season.

Here’s why: As Pacific waters warm, the air above the ocean also warms. That means the air over the Pacific rises, helping to form more hurricanes there. That excess rising over the Pacific is balanced by sinking air over the Atlantic basin – a sort of roadblock that thwarts many disturbances early in their formation.

Moreover, El Niño patterns cause stronger westerly winds over the Atlantic. That means more wind shear, or change of wind speed with height. During El Niño years, wind shear can tear apart clusters of downpours and thunderstorms before they are able organize into something larger.

One thing forecasters have continued to emphasize: Even as the odds favor a quieter-than-average hurricane season, a slow season can still quickly turn into a disaster. In 1992, for instance, only one major hurricane formed. But it was Category 5 Hurricane Andrew, which lay siege to South Florida.

“It’s the landfalling hurricanes that matter, not the number of hurricanes per season, in terms of human impacts,” Mark Bourassa, a Florida State University professor and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, said in a recent call previewing the Atlantic hurricane season. “If it hits you, it’s bad.”

As the storm season commences, questions about preparedness remain prominent around hurricane-prone areas of the Southeast.

The region has been beset by a deep drought that has persisted for months, with no end in sight. Firefighters have grappled with a blistering wildfire season in the region, including sprawling and destructive fires in Georgia and Florida in recent weeks.

Massive amounts of debris remain from Hurricane Helene, which cut a swath of destruction through the region nearly two years ago. There is also widespread uncertainty about how well the U.S. government would handle a major hurricane, at a time when the Federal Emergency Management Agency has experienced significant cuts and the Trump administration wants states and localities to share more of the burden of disaster response.

Federal, state and local officials have urged residents to plan ahead as much as possible and not to wait until a storm is barreling toward the U.S. mainland. Municipalities from Surf City, North Carolina, to Sarasota, Florida, have held community gatherings on preparedness, imploring residents to make evacuation plans, stock up on key supplies, avoid deadly storm surges and sign up for emergency notifications.

“Early preparedness is absolutely everything. Period, end of story,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said Thursday. “The actions that you take today really get you ready for the hurricane season.”