Global warming likely to exceed 1.5C through 2030, WMO says

Global warming is likely to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius for the next five years, breaching a threshold that countries set in the 2015 Paris climate accord, and 2027 is set to be the next year of record-breaking heat, according to a report by the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization.

Average temperatures across the planet will continue at or near record-high levels through the end of the decade, according to a report published Thursday by the U.K.’s Met Office . There is an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest observed.

“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026,” said Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author, referring to the phenomenon that influences global weather patterns and can lead to hotter temperatures in some parts of the world. The El Niño forecast “increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”

So far, only 2024 has exceeded 1.5 degrees Celisus, or about 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, of warming above preindustrial levels. Scientists have formally determined that the target is overshot based on a longer-term average, over about 20 years. But the fast pace of global warming means temporary exceedances are expected to occur with increasing frequency, the report said. Higher average temperatures contribute to crop failure, wildfires, extreme rain and damage to ecosystems around the world.

Climate change is exacerbating extreme weather in the present, according to a separate report focusing on this month’s heat dome in Western Europe by ClimaMeter, a consortium of European researchers doing rapid attribution studies on how global warming influences such events. Climate change led to the phenomenon that brought record May temperatures in the U.K. and France up to 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer, researchers concluded.

“While we have made some progress in cutting emissions, it is not fast enough,” said Friedrike Otto, a professor of climate science at Imperial College London, commenting on the heat wave in Europe. “Temperature records will continue to tumble until we fundamentally halt global emissions and reach net zero.”

Europe’s current heat wave has been linked to deaths in France. Modeling by Imperial College shows the extremely high May temperatures could lead to over 250 additional deaths in England and Wales.

“For vulnerable groups without access to cooling – particularly the elderly, the very young, and those with underlying health conditions – these temperatures are quite simply dangerous, and potentially fatal,” said Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a lecturer at Imperial’s Grantham Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.