Numbers gaming

Dino Rossi’s gubernatorial campaign seems to be trying to downplay expectations for the Aug. 19 primary.

Rossi obviously expects to make it through next Tuesday’s election to face Democrat Chris Gregoire in November. But a press release sent out by the campaign seems to be an attempt to inoculate him against any questions about getting fewer votes than she gets.

A memo from Campaign Manager Afton Swift explains why Gregoire might come out of the top two primary as the top one, because

turnout is sluggish and

the so-called 4 of 4s (people who have cast ballots in all of the last four elections) are most likely to vote, and

polling shows Rossi does better with less likely voters, and

less likely voters are probably going to vote in November in greater numbers, and

there’s more Democrats than Republicans in Washington, and

Republicans hardly ever get the most votes in gubernatorial primaries, even if they win the general election, and

Democrats are more likely to vote in the primary, while Republicans and independents will probably turn out heavier in November, and

Gregoire has spent more than Rossi on TV ads.

So don’t even think about looking at his totals, and comparing them with her totals, Swift seems to be suggesting. Unless of course his are bigger, in which case, it’s a sure bet they’ll be declaring a huge victory that portends an even bigger win in November.