Revise wind forecast

Al Gore has challenged “our nation to commit to producing 100 percent of our electricity from renewable energy from carbon-free sources within 10 years.” Since solar is too expensive, nukes are decades away and “dilithium crystals” are somewhat elusive, let’s assume that the only viable option is wind power. Consider the following.

Initiative 937 mandates that 15 percent of Washington’s electrical power come from renewable sources by 2020. Wind capacity in Washington, from 12 wind farms, is about 2,000 megawatts. Total capacity from all sources is about 29,000 megawatts. Assuming a wind turbine efficiency of 30 percent and 85 percent from other sources, we produce about 2.5 percent of our power from wind. So, what will it take to reach 15 percent?

The Wild Horse wind farm near Ellensburg has 149 turbines (windmills) with a capacity of 273 megawatts or 82 megawatts at 30 percent. This equates to about 0.3 percent of Washington’s electric power generation on about 10,000 acres. Reaching that 15 percent goal would therefore require about 7,500 windmills occupying roughly 500,000 acres or 780 square miles.

The Centralia coal-fired plant has a 1,460-megawatt capacity and sits on about 300 acres – about half a square mile. Think black.

Jerry Olson

Spokane