Voters Not Locking Into Primary Races

I just got off the phone w/County Clerk Dan English, who reports that the absentee ballots are coming in steadily today. But he shares my opinion that there’s widespread apathy this year, despite key races that will be decided in the primary election — Idaho Supreme Court, two Kootenai County commissioner seats, and two of the three seats in state District 3. I didn’t get one question from another church member re: the races Sunday, which has to be a first for the Sunday preceding an election. Dan predicts that the final turnout total will be lucky to top 25 percent. I’d say a low turnout will make it easier for a dedicated group of partisans (like Tea Party sympathizers) to grab some seats that they might not otherwise get (read: Steve Vick over incumbent Mike Jorgenson in Senate District 3). Also, the Tea Party might be disparaged elsewhere but not here in Idaho. Where Tea Party Boise has endorsed Raul Labrador in the 1st Congressional District race w/former frontrunner Vaughn Ward. Which would be a gauge of the clout Sarah Palin has in her state of birth. I’m predicting close races will go to diehard conservatives Tuesday.

Question: What percentage of the voters do you predict will turn out in your county Tuesday? Who will pull the upsets?