Hot air

Adapting a Jan. 1 Fox News piece, Donald Vicena implies that those who worry about anthropogenic warming are nincompoops (“Poor prognosticators,” 1/6/20).

Exhibit A is a 1990 article by William Booth citing “predictions that Earth will warm on average by about 3 °F by the year 2020.” The actual change between 1990 and 2020 was 1 °F. Gotcha, says Fox News!

The context, acknowledged sotto-voce by Fox: Booth’s source apparently was the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and average temperatures in 2020 are “just within” the IPCC’s 1990 predictions. That’s “within.” You can criticize Booth for misrepresenting the IPCC projections. But calling the science itself wrong here is like saying a forecaster who predicts 1–3” of snow is wrong if we get 1”.

Even a temperature increase well below the range of IPCC estimates wouldn’t debunk the science. Error/recalibration/refinement is how science eventually gets things right. In this instance, factoring in volcanism might have improved the 1990 model.

Mr. Vicena gives the last word to Roy Spencer, a climatologist who has signed an Evangelical manifesto stating, “We believe Earth and its ecosystems — created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence — are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth’s climate system is no exception…” Spencer’s mind is made up. No matter what the evidence, there’s no anthropogenic climate change.

That’s not science. That’s religion.

Brian Keeling

Spokane