Spin Control: The crystal ball for 2026 might be a little hazy

On the first Sunday in January, the year ahead is a blank slate, a tabula rasa, sort of like the first day of a new school year. There are many possibilities and seemingly no insurmountable obstacles getting in the way.

That makes it the perfect time for Spin Control to gaze into its crystal ball, repeat Bullwinkle’s chant of “Eenie, meanie, chili beanie” and prognosticate about things that may or may not happen. Here goes:

The Legislature will convene on Jan. 12 facing a potential budget shortfall and calls for belt-tightening and right-sizing. By the Jan. 19, 143 of the 147 legislators will have introduced bills for new programs or initiatives that would cost more money.

At least once a month, some news organization will release a poll that shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating is so low that Democrats are guaranteed to take control of the House of Representatives in the fall elections. This despite the fact the same poll also shows that Democrats’ approval rating is half of Trump’s.

In an effort to raise money to close the budget shortfall, the Legislature will propose a tariff on all alcoholic beverages not produced in Washington. Democrats who have been vocally opposed to Trump’s tariffs will support it, while Republicans who have been supportive of the Trump tariffs will oppose it.

Someone will become the consensus frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in February. That person will be declared out of the running by May but re-emerge as a viable candidate by the end of the year.

A bill to split Washington state into two autonomous regions – one on each side of the Cascades – will fail to get a vote, or even a hearing, in the 2026 Legislature. Supporters will start a new effort to split Washington in half and name the eastern half Trump state.

Odds-makers at the major online gambling sites will expand into taking bets on political races and issues. One of the hottest actions in the first weeks will be the bet on whether Washington Gov. Bob Ferguson or California Gov. Gavin Newsom will file the next lawsuit against the Trump administration.

In yet another effort to raise money to close the budget shortfall, a group of legislators will propose a 1% tax on payments to people who collect signatures for statewide initiatives. It will fail when opponents amend the bill to include a 1% tax on campaign contributions to people running for state office, to be paid by the candidate.

In March after a snowy winter, Spokane residents will be outraged at the number of potholes in the city’s streets. In June, those same residents will be outraged at the number of road closures and detours they have to put up with to get to work, school or the store.

Asked whether he will issue an executive order naming a state after himself, the president will say he’s hasn’t thought much about it but will look into it because “many people are telling me it’s a great idea.”

The Trump administration will announce plans to send to the National Guard and 100 ICE agents to Seattle during the summer for the World Cup. Ferguson and Attorney General Nick Brown will to sue to stop them, but will request 100 extra traffic cops to handle traffic jams on the interstate and around Lumen Field.

The effort to turn Eastern Washington into Trump state will hit a snag when MAGA supporters in North Dakota and South Dakota introduce bills to divest themselves of “woke” Indian names and change their names to North Trump and South Trump. Proponents will be divided over whether it makes more sense to go from Eastern Washington to West Trump or to secede entirely from the United States.

Because of the retirement of Rep. Dan Newhouse, the 4th District Congressional race in Central Washington will attract a record number of Republican candidates for a U.S. House race in the state.

In other 2026 election news, in Spokane legislative races, earnest Republicans will announce campaigns against Democratic incumbents in the 3rd Legislative District, while well-meaning Democrats will announce against Republican incumbents in the 4th, 6th, 7th and 9th districts. None of them will win, although one will be close enough that the outcome will be in doubt for two days after the election, raising hopes for candidates in 2028.

In December, like most prognosticating pundits, Spin Control will only remember the ones that turned out to be right.