Legislative budget director Cathy Holland-Smith has laid out the current assumptions about state revenue for the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee. State tax revenues for fy 2011 are actually tracking now at 4.8 percent, above the current administration estimate of 4.2 percent. But the committee's assumptions don't count on any excess revenue from this year, though the state is now $10.2 million ahead; the governor's budget counted on $33 million in excess, so that makes the bottom line lower by $33 million. Also, there's the cost of partial tax conformity, about $10.5 million this year and $9.6 million next year. And legislative figures for transfers from various funds are a bit lower than anticipated in the governor's budget, plus there's a $1 million expense for disaster recovery in the military division that wasn't anticipated in the governor's budget.

The bottom line is that, compared to the governor's budget recommendation, legislative estimates show a $56.7 million shortfall. That's using the governor's revenue assumption for next year of just 3 percent growth in state tax revenues, even though his own economic forecasters predict 6.9 percent. The difference between those two forecasts is $91 million. It also assumes the governor's recommended line items will be funded, and his $35 million in varying budget cuts to state agencies are made.

If lawmakers must cut another $56.7 million from the governor's budget, spread evenly across state agencies, that would be an additional cut of 2.21 percent. The evenly-spread result would be an additional cut for public schools of $27.3 million from the base budget. Because of enrollment growth and other factors, that'd be $5.7 million less in dollars for schools than this year's budget.

For colleges and universities, the additional budget cut beyond the governor's budget would come to $4.7 million. The dollar difference from the 2011 appropriation for colleges and universities would be $7.6 million.