Birth Rates For Teens Leveling Off But Experts Still Uncertain Whether Trend Is Long-Term

The federal government reported Thursday that births to teenage girls have declined, and childbearing rates among unmarried women have leveled after rising steadily for 50 years, interrupting social trends that have redefined the American family and contributed to the recent clamor for a tougher welfare system.

“Any sign those patterns are reversing is very encouraging,” said Stephanie Ventura, a demographer at the National Center for Health Statistics, a research arm of the CDC.

At the same time, Ventura and others emphasized that teenage childbearing and out-of-wedlock births remain at historically high levels and that it is too early to say whether long-term increases are reversing.

“Although these findings are encouraging, we clearly still need to do more to reduce teen pregnancy,” Health and Human Services Secretary Donna E. Shalala said in a statement.

The statistics come as Congress and the administration are trying to overhaul the nation’s welfare system, a process fueled for many politicians by the belief that welfare has contributed to the increase both in childbearing among teenagers and unmarried births generally.

That argument, and the question of whether out-of-wedlock births can be reduced by changing social policy, has been contentious throughout the welfare debate.

Nevertheless, it is clear from research studies that children born in a two-parent family are most likely to stay in school, succeed academically and avoid a host of other problems.

During the 1970s, the rate of births to teenagers declined rapidly, due largely to the legalization of abortion. But officials were alarmed when the rate began rising again in 1986 and continued to increase until early this decade.

The data released Thursday indicates the trend has reversed again and appears headed downward, at least for now. The rate dropped from 62.1 per 1000 teenagers in 1991 to 59.6 in 1993, the most recent figures available.

The decline was not due to an increase in abortions, officials said, citing data showing that in a majority of states, fewer teenagers were becoming pregnant.