Popularity Contest Slanted Toward High Record Sales Volume, Tonight’s Grammy Award Selections Will Probably Cling To Mainstream

The people behind the Grammy Awards are probably busy right now sending thank-you notes to the American Music Awards. That recent awards show was so positively lame that the Grammys would have to explode to be worse.

And yet, it could happen.

Conventional wisdom says that the Grammys, long a bastion of lunacy when it comes to nominating deserving music performers, has finally changed its ways. No more Christopher Cross or Milli Vanilli. No more cash-cow chart-toppers winning at the expense of deserving artists. It’s a whole new world, apparently.

Ah, but is it really?

For every inspired nomination - Ali Akbar Khan for traditional folk album - there are two embarrassments. For example, the Eagles being nominated for “Hotel California” of all things. In fact, the Grammys have shown a real bloodlust for nominating older artists redoing their chestnuts - the Eagles, Bob Dylan (“Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door”) and Led Zeppelin (“Kashmir”), just to name a few from this year.

Why would they do this? It’s safe. And the Grammys have always shown a tendency to be ultra-conservative. Granted, there have been improvements in recent years. More deserving artists have been nominated. But the true test of change is whether these artists actually win.

Well, to spare you the drama, they don’t. As usual, you will see plenty of Mariah Carey up at the podium tonight. You are less likely to see Primus. You get the picture.

Thirty-eight years of awards have not changed the Grammys much. Despite basking in the glow of being viewed as progressive, the awards are hopelessly linked to popularity and record sales. This year, the Grammys have a chance to look like visionaries, picking winners who come from the alternative music genre since that has been the mainstream sound of choice for several years now.

It’s almost a can’t-lose proposition. These modern rock bands are so hot they’re commercial. And commercial always wins at the Grammys.

In a year when the theme song from “Friends” is nominated for best pop performance by a duo or group, well, you never know what kind of sins will be revealed.

Here, then, is a handicap of the major categories plus a few surprise areas where the Grammys have done themselves proud.

Record of the year

(This is basically best single, since song of the year is awarded to songwriters). “One Sweet Day,” Mariah Carey & Boyz II Men. Odds: Even. This is a done deal. “Gangsta’s Paradise,” Coolio. Odds: 10-1. Melodic, but no chance for a rap song to win, especially one with “gangsta” in the title. “One of Us,” Joan Osborne. Odds: 5-1. This could be your upset winner. If so, the Grammys may be headed for an alternative bent. “Kiss From a Rose,” Seal. Odds: 2-1. As good a chance as any. “Waterfalls,” TLC. Odds: 3-1. Not their best effort, but a massive hit. Still, unlikely to win.

Album of the year

“Daydream” Mariah Carey. Odds: 2-1. She can be beat, but only if the Grammys want to be different this year. “HIStory, Past, Present and Future,” Michael Jackson. Odds: 10-1. Too much controversy. Unfortunately, it’s one of Jackson’s best albums, despite the critical backlash. “Jagged Little Pill,” Alanis Morissette. Odds: 15-1. Arguably the deserving winner. Morissette was one of the better stories this year. “Relish,” Joan Osborne. Odds: 20-1. Not a good album, but if the Grammys want to shy away from Morissette’s more overtly bitter, adult themes, then here’s your winner. “Vitalogy,” Pearl Jam. Odds: 25-1. Probably the best album in this bunch. A rock album will not win.

New artist

Brandy. Odds: 2-1. Cute, safe and a TV star (“Moesha”). Hootie & the Blowfish. Odds: Even. This is a lock. The surest of all things. Alanis Morissette. Odds: 5-1. She should win. She won’t. Joan Osborne. Odds: 10-1. A little earthy for the Grammys, but she’s safe and allegedly cool. Shania Twain. Odds: 25-1. The Grammys like country, but not enough to give the artists anything outside of the country awards.

Female pop vocal performance

“Fantasy,” Mariah Carey. Odds: 2-1. Do you smell a sweep this year? “I Know,” Dionne Farris. Odds: 20-1. She may know, but she’s a relative unknown. “No More I Love You’s,” Annie Lennox. Odds: 5-1. This should win. And hey, it’s an old song, so the Grammys may love it. “One of Us,” Joan Osborne. Odds: 25-1. “What if God was one of us,” is the chorus to this. The Grammys are unlikely to touch that. “You Got It,” Bonnie Raitt. 10-1. Here’s your upset winner. “Colors of the Wind,” Vanessa Williams. 15-1. She certainly could win a Grammy, but not with this song.

Male pop vocal performance

“Have You Ever Really Loved a Woman,” Bryan Adams. Odds: 20-1. This is quite possibly the worst collection of pop songs in some time. And this is the bottom. “You Are Not Alone,” Michael Jackson. Odds: 5-1. Check the wind. If they give him any awards this year, he could sweep. If he’s still poison from his headline-grabbing personal life, then he loses here. “Believe,” Elton John. Odds: 3-1. He could win it. But he shouldn’t. “Kiss From a Rose,” Seal. Odds: 2-1. Probable winner. “When We Dance,” Sting. Odds: 10-1. An upset potential. Best song by far of the lot.

Performance by duo or group with vocal

“I Can Love You Like That,” All-4-One. Odds: 15-1. Please, please lose. “Love Will Keep Us Alive,” Eagles. Odds: 10-1. You’ve got the old guy factor here. But not enough sentiment or quality to win. “Let Her Cry,” Hootie & the Blowfish. Odds: Even. Wins in a landslide. “I’ll Be There For You,” the Rembrandts. Odds: 2-1. If anyone beats Hootie, it’ll be this piece of ear candy. “Waterfalls,” TLC. Odds: 3-1. Can win, but it’s probably not their year.

Give the Grammys credit for littering some categories with strong, critically acclaimed choices. Neil Young is a factor in several genres. Chris Isaak has a shot at male rock vocal performance and rock album. Women rockers are getting some long overdue attention in many categories. Bliss: Morissette, Liz Phair and PJ Harvey together.

Outsiders as diverse as Trent Reznor, the Chieftains with Van Morrison, Skee-Lo, Bone Thugs-N-Harmony, Alison Krauss, John Prine and Joni Mitchell get their due. The Grammys even went overboard to be hip on the alternative front, ridiculously selecting the Presidents of the United States of America - quite possibly the world’s most overrated band.

But mostly the Grammys stayed safe, went commercial and rewarded the very tame. What you’re likely to see are all the safe bets coming home safely, all the long shots left somewhere in the distance.

And that’s not progress.