Wwp Economic Forecaster Finds Silver Lining In National Slowdown
Inland Northwest economic forecaster Randy Barcus sees a bright side locally to the lackluster national outlook.
In his view, a looming national slowdown in auto manufacturing and sales looks to be a real plus for this region.
“I think we are very fortunate,” he says, “that we don’t have any automobile manufacturing plants around here.” Thus, a production cutback and softening of the national market won’t cost Inland Northwesterners jobs. “But,” says Barcus, “when Ford announces a $600 rebate on every car they sell, … you’ve got that much more money left to spend on other stuff in the local community.”
The senior market analyst and forecaster for Washington Water Power Co. can cite no end of such bargains.
Addressing a banquet meeting of area purchasing managers, Barcus pointed out how fortunate they are to have such obviously efficient, productive and competitive employers. All the others, he wryly observed, have “gone out of business.”
Barcus predicts Spokane job growth will dip marginally to about 2.5 percent this year, then remain at around that level the balance of this century.
Kootenai County’s torrid five-year employment spurt is still not entirely spent. Job growth this year should approximate last year’s rate of almost 5 percent - half the pace of the early ‘90s but still hot, hot.
The utility’s crystal-ball-gazer even found a way to, as he himself phrased it, “put a positive spin” on closure of the Louisiana Pacific mill in Post Falls. “The number of people working in the forest products industry in North Idaho will probably not change when that mill closes,” he said, “because the amount of lumber that will be manufactured in North Idaho is going to go to the existing plants that are left.”
Over the next five years, Barcus says, he expects Spokane population to grow about 4,000 a year - roughly equal to last year but half the peak year of 1993. Kootenai County’s annual population growth will run around 3,000 for the rest of the century, he says.
In Spokane and North Idaho, says Barcus, “the next 5 years will see more housing constructed than in the last five years.”
He also foresees continued giant strides in retail expansion. “I can hardly wait for WalMart to come to Spokane,” he says. Yes, that will weed out still more weaker competitors, he says. But consumers will reap the benefits of bigger and better bargains.
Former Spokane radio executive Robert M. Witter has been named director of promotions and partnership marketing for Disneyland Resort.
A Spokane native, he is the son of Dr. George M. Witter of Spokane.
Witter earned his spurs in promotions as regional manager for the Vancouver, British Columbia, world’s fair, Expo ‘86. He was station manager of KXLY AM & FM in Spokane from 1992 until joining the Walt Disney Co. in 1994 as regional manager for the marketing office in Seattle.
Oh, for the pastoral pleasures of life on the farm - the slow, relaxed, down-home pace. So you think. But the National Safety Council has found that stress makes farming one of the nation’s deadliest occupations.
So says the Center for Farm Health and Safety at Eastern Washington University. Stress stemming from too much rain, too little time, long hours and short tempers can make for dangerous work practices, counsels Lennie Lathan, outreach coordinator for EWU’s farm center.
“As a result,” says the St. John, Wash., farm wife and ag advocate, “agriculture annually ranks among the top three most hazardous industries in the nation.”
So EWU has developed a community-based educational program to help ease stress and improve health down on the farm. The second in a series of workshops on “Coping With Farm Stress” is scheduled Monday from 8:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. at the Ridpath Hotel. Advance registration is required. Call (509) 359-7995.
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MEMO: Associate Editor Frank Bartel writes a notes column each Wednesday. If you have business items of regional interest for future columns, call 459-5467 or send a fax to 459-5482.