Deep Blue Powerful, Not ‘Smart’

Q. Do you think that in the future a machine will become the world chess champion? Luiz Cunha, Brazil (luiz@solar.com.br).

A. Yes. Computers are getting faster and programmers are doing a better job. It is just a matter of time before a computer becomes chess champion. But so what?

In the popular imagination, playing chess has become a proxy for human intelligence. But, in fact, it is not an approximation of human intelligence in any way.

When a computer plays chess expertly, it is a demonstration of brute force - the computer’s ability to consider billions of different outcomes of a potential move.

When a computer got good at tic-tac-toe, nobody said, “Oh my God, how dangerous. The computer is thinking!”

A computer doesn’t think when it plays tic-tac-toe, and it doesn’t think when it plays chess.

Gary Kasparov, the world chess champion, recently beat Deep Blue, an IBM computer-software combination that plays chess very well. Deep Blue can analyze 50 billion chess positions in three minutes.

“What I do by feeling that it (a potential move) is right or wrong,” Kasparov said, the “machine finds by making these billions, billions and billions of calculations.”

It is fascinating that any human has the capacity to do a better job than a high-power computer at foreseeing the potential outcome of a chess move. The pattern-matching capability of Kasparov’s brain is amazing to me.

In fact, while some people are impressed that a computer can rival the world’s best chess player, I’m more impressed that a human can rival the world’s best chess-playing computer.

Deep Blue triumphed in the first game of the series, which shocked much of the chess world, including Kasparov. But the human rallied to prevail in the overall match.

“I won this match 4 to 2, but it was as tough as a world championship match and, believe me, I played very, very seriously,” Kasparov said.

After the match he said: “I believe that (for the) first time in the history of mankind we saw, definitely I saw, something similar to artificial intellect.”

Believe me, there is no artificial intellect at work inside Deep Blue. It’s just a computer running clever software.

Kasparov’s misconception is understandable. Humans tend to anthropomorphize machines.

In a very real sense, the recent chess match was between one person, Kasparov, and an opposing committee of people employing a tool to execute collective strategies. The tool was a computer.

Deep Blue could have prevailed in the recent match had Kasparov not changed his style of play after his initial loss. That the chess champ was able so quickly to identify the computer’s weaknesses and adapt his competitive strategy is testimony to human intellect. The best the computer can do to improve is accept software refinements from human programmers.

Q. In your book, “The Road Ahead,” you talk about how business will become more streamlined. This will probably mean a loss of jobs. What type of jobs will be lost as a result of the information highway? What types of jobs will be created? Scott, Australia (mcleans(AT)ozonline.com.au).

A. A lot of paperwork jobs will be lost, and a lot of service-oriented jobs in areas such as education, medicine and leisure will be created.

Most jobs that will be lost are fairly rote because a computer can do only those kinds of tasks. As I just said, even a computer’s approach to playing chess involves the rote consideration of billions of possibilities.

Most of the new jobs will result from society being richer as a result of increased overall productivity. Better medicine, more leisure time and better teaching are some of the areas on which I think society will focus its increased wealth.

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