Sounding Out Idaho A Dead Heat In 1st District Poll Finds Chenoweth Locked In Tough Race With Williams

U.S. Rep. Helen Chenoweth and challenger Dan Williams are in a dead heat with just days left before the election, according to a new poll.

The poll, conducted Sunday and Monday for The Idaho Spokesman-Review and two television stations, found 44 percent of likely voters favored Republican Chenoweth, 44 percent favored Democrat Williams, 4 percent favored Natural Law Party candidate Marion Ellis and 8 percent were undecided.

Three earlier polls also showed the race tightening, with Chenoweth’s numbers holding steady while Williams gained both support and name recognition.

The new poll also showed Republican Sen. Larry Craig has lost some ground to Democratic challenger Walt Minnick, but Craig still holds a strong lead - 51 percent to Minnick’s 37 percent.

Williams hailed the poll results and said he expects to continue to gain. “All the momentum in the race is on my side. I expect that to continue as people really focus on the choice in front of them between a reasonable, moderate voice or two more years of Helen Chenoweth’s rhetoric.”

Chenoweth couldn’t be reached for comment Thursday afternoon, but her campaign spokeswoman, Khris Bershers, said, “We’ve always known it was a close race. Polls have generally proved not to be very reliable in Helen’s case.”

Bershers noted that a poll by the same company, Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, showed Chenoweth behind shortly before she won her seat in 1994.

Del Ali, vice president of the polling firm, said the close race makes voter turnout a key factor - and turnout could be affected if networks call the presidential race and the battle for control of Congress early based on East Coast results.

“I’m one who believes that when your party is doing well, you’re motivated to vote,” Ali said. “If this thing is over by 8:30, and key seats go down to the Democrats (in the East), I think the Republican base is going to be demoralized. Someone who was going to come out and vote might say ‘things are over.”’

Idaho Secretary of State Pete Cenarrusa joined officials from six other Western states this week in appealing to television networks not to call races before the polls close in Western time zones.

Some Idaho Democrats believe an early call in the 1980 presidential race caused then-U.S. Sen. Frank Church to lose narrowly to Steve Symms, said Ben Ysursa, chief deputy secretary of state.

Ysursa is predicting a turnout of about 72 percent on Tuesday, or 480,000 voters, down from the 80 percent level of 1992. “We haven’t experienced the intensity of the ‘92 election,” Ysursa said. “For Idaho in a presidential year, it’d be on the low side.”

Absentee ballots have come in strongly, but part of that is due to a Republican mailing to 120,000 people encouraging absentee voting, Ysursa said.

Ali said with Idaho voters strongly favoring Republican Bob Dole, he would expect Chenoweth to win the deadlock, with turnout questions as “the one ray of hope” for Williams.

The poll also asked voters whether they wanted their congressional representative to work to place more restrictions on abortion. Forty-three percent said yes, 48 percent said no, and 9 percent weren’t sure.

Chenoweth has highlighted her support for a ban on partial-birth abortions in both her campaign advertising and in her public comments this year. She also co-sponsored legislation declaring that life begins at conception. Williams hasn’t emphasized the issue.

“Helen is not a single-issue congressman, so I don’t know if it’s going to make a difference in the results,” Bershers said.

Williams said, “Although it’s very split, most people rightly think that the government is not the place to decide these questions.”

The poll, which queried 813 likely voters, 405 of them in the 1st Congressional District, found that 43 percent had favorable impressions of Chenoweth, 45 percent had unfavorable impressions, 11 percent were neutral and just 1 percent didn’t recognize her name. Those numbers mark the first time in the series of four polls that Chenoweth’s unfavorable ratings exceeded her favorables.

For Williams, 36 percent had favorable impressions, 32 percent were unfavorable, 21 percent were neutral and 11 percent didn’t know his name, down from 17 percent in mid-October.

The poll found a split between male and female voters, with men favoring Chenoweth by 48-42 percent, and women favoring Williams by 46-40 percent. Ten percent of women were undecided, and 6 percent of men were undecided.

In the Craig-Minnick matchup, both candidates’ unfavorable ratings have continued to climb. Forty-eight percent had favorable impressions of Craig, with 36 percent unfavorable. Thirty-three percent had favorable impressions of Minnick, with 41 percent unfavorable.

The statewide poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. For the 1st Congressional District, the margin is plus or minus 5 percent.

, DataTimes ILLUSTRATION: 2 Graphics: Dead heat in House race; Senate race closes some more