Observers Fear Fall Into Anarchy

The Zairian army’s apparent rout at the hands of Tutsi rebels this week has given rise to new fears that the slow disintegration of this vast nation, a process under way for years, could accelerate and further threaten the stability of the central African region.

Thus far, however, the main tangible result of the chaotic fighting near the eastern border with Rwanda and Burundi has been a rise in nationalistic fervor, along with open ethnic hatred aimed at the Tutsi minority. In the short run, analysts said, these factors tend to knit the country together. In the long run, though, they may only deepen Zaire’s grave peril.

At stake is the future of one of Africa’s largest and potentially richest countries, one long beset by rampant corruption, crumbling infrastructure and a government whose reach and control have become dangerously weak. Linked to Zaire’s prospects is the stability of a densely populated region already reeling from ethnic wars and massive flows of refugees.

Many observers have suggested that the Zaire-Tutsi war, coupled with President Mobutu Sese Seko’s absence for cancer treatments, could lead to Zaire’s breakup into anarchy and further destabilize the African Great Lakes region of Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Zaire, Uganda and Tanzania.

Rather than a political breakup, the opposite effect is being manifested here in Zaire’s capital. Students and others demonstrated this week in favor of the war effort. Even Zaire’s opposition parties were largely united in their support of the war.