Coattails May Be Looking Shorter Than Ever While Demo Executives Likely, Gop Looks To Retain Legislative Majorities

In 1992, Democrats ruled the roost, crowing after they captured nearly every office in sight. In 1994, the Republicans staged a stunning comeback. And this year, the tiebreaker goes to … both parties?

It’s beginning to look like divided government in Olympia and Washington, D.C., with ticket-splitting voters largely entrusting executive offices to newly moderate Democrats and their congressional and legislative majorities to penny-pinching Republicans.

“Ticket-splitting is rampant, and coattails are real short,” says political scientist David Olson of the University of Washington.

Some Republicans are explicitly, if cautiously, pitching to voters’ splitting, saying taxpayers need the protection of conservatives if they insist on picking Bill Clinton for the White House and Gary Locke for the governor’s mansion.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, closely watching the fate of the six House freshmen elected here in 1994, is running television ads warning against the “blank check” of a one-party national government.

“The prospect of a Democrat Congress bought and paid for by big labor bosses from Washington, D.C., and controlled by the most liberal factions of the left-wing establishment is truly a frightening scenario,” says Rep. Bill Paxon, R-N.Y., chairman of the committee.

State Republican Chairman Ken Eikenberry isn’t ready to concede Craswell’s loss, but says plenty of Locke-Clinton voters plan to pick Republicans for Legislature and Congress.

Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping that the Clinton-Locke coattails will be sufficiently long to blunt the Republican successes down-ballot. Although the math looks difficult, they haven’t given up on saving their state Senate majority or sending Clinton a bunch of Democratic replacements for the Republicans elected in the ‘94 GOP landslide.

“If Bill Clinton beats Bob Dole by more than 10 points, we will have major victories up and down the ticket,” says state Democratic Chairman Paul Berendt. He says Republicans “made a horrible tactical error by turning their backs on the ticket leader” and that down-ballot Republicans may also be hurt.

When the Republicans start pleading for ticket-splitting, Democrats know they have them on the run, says Democratic consultant Cathy Allen.

“It is so transparent (that Republicans are conceding Clinton’s victory) that I am thrilled,” she says. “What the ad does is broadcast that they see themselves as losers. I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll wake up Wednesday morning with big smiles on our faces.”

Both parties are worried about turnout in this squirrelly year - how many voters trek to the polls and of what political stripe.

A last-minute swing by the large bloc of undecided voters could affect some of the close races, but most independent observers predict a landslide victory for Clinton and an easy win for Locke.

Democrats also are favored to keep their grip on statewide offices below the governor. Only Secretary of State Ralph Munro, a moderate-to-liberal Republican, is a clear favorite to win for his party. If he’s the only GOP winner, the Republicans would be even worse off than they were after the 1992 shellacking, when only Munro and Lt. Gov. Joel Pritchard won.