Sounding Out Idaho Poll Finds Minnick Still Trailing Craig Negative Numbers Are Up For Both Senate Candidates

Sen. Larry Craig is holding on to a strong lead over challenger Walt Minnick, a new poll says, despite Minnick’s television ad blitz.

The statewide poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research for The Idaho Spokesman-Review, KHQ-TV in Spokane and KTVB-TV in Boise, shows Craig with 53 percent to Minnick’s 34 percent, with 10 percent undecided.

Both campaigns have been advertising heavily on television, with Minnick spending nearly $1 million, about a third of that in the Spokane market. Craig has spent about a quarter as much on TV ads so far, and he expects to spend about $80,000 in the Spokane market.

The number of Idahoans with negative impressions of Craig jumped 9 percentage points since a similar poll in September. But Minnick’s negatives more than doubled, from 14 to 33 percent.

Craig dropped three points from a similar poll in September, while Minnick gained two. But neither of those changes exceeded the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Craig, who was on a campaign bus tour in the St. Maries area Monday, hailed the poll results, while the Minnick campaign disputed them.

“The negative advertising has backfired on my opponent,” Craig said in a telephone interview from the Fernwood general store. “While he has caused people falsely to question my record, he has not been able to pick up the difference.”

Minnick was flying to Dallas for a corporate board meeting Monday, but his campaign spokesman, Bill Broadhead, said, “I think this poll is as far off in the Senate race as they were in the governor’s race in 1994.”

A poll by the same firm in ‘94 wrongly predicted a win by Democrat Larry EchoHawk.

“You don’t have to look any farther than Larry Craig’s actions in the last two weeks,” Broadhead said. “He has launched a desperate, sleazy ad campaign that you simply don’t do if you’re 20 points up.”

Both sides accuse the other of negative campaigning. Both have been running increasingly strident ads that accuse each other of lying.

Craig, who is seeking his second term in the U.S. Senate, previously served five terms in the U.S. House. Minnick is a millionaire businessman who formerly headed a Boisebased wood products firm.

The biggest change shown by the poll’s numbers is that 96 percent of Idahoans now recognize Walt Minnick’s name. That number was 78 percent in September, and 58 percent in May.

That may be due as much to Craig’s efforts as to Minnick’s, according to Jim Weatherby, who heads Boise State University’s Public Affairs program.

“In mid-summer, Craig was attacking Minnick by name,” Weatherby said, which he termed “very odd.”

“There was no indication that Minnick was close,” Weatherby said.

“Craig has never faced a candidate with the kind of resources Minnick has. And I just think he felt that this was going to be a tougher race.”

One hundred percent of those polled had heard of Larry Craig, up from 98 percent in September.

Fifty percent had favorable impressions of Craig, with 29 percent unfavorable and 21 percent neutral.

By contrast, 34 percent had favorable impressions of Minnick, with 33 percent unfavorable and 29 percent neutral.

The poll questioned 834 registered Idaho voters by phone last Tuesday through Thursday.

Craig called on Minnick to stick to issues during the final three weeks of the campaign, and avoid negative ads. Craig called Minnick’s ads “unprecedented,” and said he’s running his only because, “You just simply have to respond to a lie.”

John Freemuth, a BSU political science professor, said, “They’re both running real negative campaigns at this point. It’s hard to say who started it. I think a lot of people wish they’d stop it.”

, DataTimes ILLUSTRATION: Graphic: Senate race closes only slightly