The Maris Race Is On

With 14 home runs, including a major-league record 13 in April, Seattle’s Ken Griffey Jr. had produced one simple question and another more difficult.

Can he break the single-season home run record of 61 set by Roger Maris 36 years ago?

That’s easy. Of course he can.

The much tougher question is “Will he?”

Last week in New York, ex-teammate Tino Martinez was asked about Griffey’s chances of breaking the record and his response was more matter-of-fact than the result of deep thought.

“Junior can do anything he wants,” Martinez said.

A sampling of scouts, general managers and players encountered last month produced the same answer. No one thinks it’s a given the record will fall, but virtually everyone thinks one, two, perhaps three players this year will have the chance late in the season.

And Griffey leads the list of candidates. Why?

First, he has the ability. He hit 49 home runs last year in 140 games - hit 40 homers in 1994 in just 111 games. Griffey has the swing and at 27 is entering what scouts consider his physical prime.

Second, the media crush that would accompany a run at Maris would hardly overwhelm Junior. What, he might wind up on a magazine cover? He’s dealt with the press since 1989, through that eight-game home run streak, through the playoffs, through playing next to his father.

Third, major league pitching is ripe to be overpowered this season. Look at April, where Griffey, Roberto Alomar, Matt Williams and Tino Martinez all had three-home-run games. No team has enough pitching, and as the summer wears on and injuries force some of it to the side, pitching quality probably will decline, not improve.

And fourth, if projections are accurate, Griffey won’t be taking the heat of the chase alone. Mark McGwire, Williams and Larry Walker are all candidates to hit 50-plus, and more may emerge as the spring temperatures rise.

So - done deal? Hardly. Name any of the game’s great power hitters - from Mays to Mantle, Aaron to Matthews, Fielder to Belle - and only Maris has hit 61 home runs in a single season. That alone speaks to the difficulty involved.

Those in the game who think Griffey can do it know the pitfalls that could stop him.

“People think the biggest issue is whether he’ll get the pitches to hit as the summer goes on,” one A.L. scout said. “But that’s a two-part problem. First, will pitchers give him pitches to hit? Second, will he be patient enough to wait for those pitches - or will he start chasing ones that look close but aren’t?”

Griffey has done both already this season. When he is patient, waiting for better pitches, he has been a dominant force. In the New York series, he got few pitches to drive but compounded that by not working the count in his favor.

During the course of a long season, giving away at-bats could cost any hitter.

Another fear with Griffey is his style of play - all out. Great home run hitters rarely crash into walls at maximum velocity. There’s no reason to expect a major injury, but even a minor pull or strain could cost him games and home runs.

As remarkable as any aspect of Griffey’s early power show was that neither Edgar Martinez nor Jay Buhner, the men behind him in the lineup, had great starts. Griffey was walked intentionally five times in April, pitched around numerous others.

If they heat up, pitching around Griffey extracts a greater risk to opposing teams. Most will still take it.

In April alone, Kansas City’s Bob Boone, Detroit’s Buddy Bell and Cleveland’s Mike Hargrove made their strategy clear: Don’t let Griffey beat you.

Against pitchers who challenge hitters - Roger Clemens and David Cone being examples - Griffey hit four home runs in two games last month. That sent a message across the league.

Griffey may challenge Maris this year and certainly has the talent to break one of the game’s most revered marks.

But no one is going to help him. Perhaps the beauty of the record is no one can.

Around the majors

McGwire’s first 11 home runs this season averaged 431 feet in length. Since major league baseball began keeping track of unofficial distances on homers, the three longest hit have all belonged to McGwire. … When Griffey hit his 13 April home runs, it left him with one more for the month than the Philadelphia Phillies.

As if the Pittsburgh Pirates needed a handicap, they have a closer - John Ericks - who can’t pitch because of a stiff neck. When does it bother him most? “On the mound. It hurts when I face home plate.” … In a 14-8 Milwaukee victory over Texas last week, winning pitcher Ben McDonald called the press box three times during the game to complain about the official scoring, which eventually was changed - meaning four runs allowed by McDonald were unearned. Each time McDonald called, he lobbied an error be charged to a teammate.

Rumors in New York are that George Steinbrenner is going to sign Hideki Irabu to a three-year contract worth $1.5 million per season. The kicker? There will be an $8.5 million signing bonus.

Ribbit, ribbit

On McGwire’s home run last week that hit the beer sign far beyond the left field wall at Jacobs Field in Cleveland, Indians outfielder Brian Giles said:

“He hit the ball so hard it knocked the frogs off that Budweiser sign.

“After the game, he said he was going to go lift. I said, ‘Lift what, a car?’ Nobody is that strong.”

MEMO: This sidebar appeared with the story: Chasing Maris Players Larry LaRue says could threaten Roger Maris’ record of 61 HRs in one season (with current total): Ken Griffey 14 Mark McGwire 12 Larry Walker 11 Matt Williams 7