Poll Shows Murray Would Be Re-Elected Survey Done For Nethercutt, A Potential Candidate, Shows Vulnerabilities For Both Murray And Smith
Washington is headed for a tight U.S. Senate race in 1998, with Democratic Sen. Patty Murray and her best-known GOP challenger, Rep. Linda Smith, showing political vulnerabilities, according to a new statewide poll.
The survey was done by the Tarrance Group, one of the nation’s leading Republican opinion firms, and paid for by Rep. George Nethercutt, R-Wash.
Nethercutt, a two-term Spokane Republican, is expected to announce within two weeks whether he will enter the Senate race. The congressman’s staff refused to discuss the survey Monday after results were made available by another source.
The poll showed that Murray would get almost 45 percent of the vote if a Senate primary election were held today. On the Republican side, Smith would get just under 20 percent, with 13.5 percent going to Nethercutt and 3.1 percent to Pierce County Executive Doug Sutherland.
Almost 20 percent of the voters interviewed were undecided.
The Tarrance survey did two head-to-head matchups. Murray would defeat Smith by a 47-39 margin, and runs ahead of Nethercutt by a slightly wider 49 percent to 36 percent. The remaining voters were undecided.
The telephone survey of 500 voters was taken in mid-September and carries an error margin of plus or minus 4.5 percent. The Tarrance Group has a record for reliability, and did polling for Nethercutt in his 1994 upset of House Speaker Tom Foley.
In June, a poll conducted for The Spokesman-Review by Mason-Dixon Political Media Research Inc. showed Murray leading Smith 41 percent to 31 percent and leading Nethercutt by 45 percent to 24 percent in head-to-head surveys.
In evaluating Murray, the Tarrance poll showed that many voters still have not made up their minds about the first-term senator.
The survey found that slightly more than half of those surveyed had a positive impression of Murray, with 30 percent giving her negative marks. But only 39 percent said they would vote to re-elect her, with 38 percent opting to try someone new and 23 percent remaining undecided.
The Tarrance poll also carries warning signs for Smith. The southwest Washington lawmaker had the GOP Senate field to herself for six months until Sutherland entered the race last week. Smith has seized on issues ranging from the pending congressional pay raise to keeping the battleship USS Missouri in Bremerton.
But Smith, prominent in Christian conservative circles, has not expanded on her base. She remains at 20 percent in a primary - a figure widely seen as representing the state’s core conservative vote.
The Tarrance poll asked voters what kind of person they want in the U.S. Senate. A total of 23 percent said a conservative Republican, but 16 percent opted for a moderate Republican and 5 percent for a GOP liberal.
Twelve percent wanted a liberal Democrat, 21 percent wanted a moderate Democrat and 7 percent opted for a conservative Democrat. xxxx WHAT’S NEXT? Rep. George Nethercutt is expected to announce within two weeks whether he will enter the Senate race.