Nfl Combine Known To Produce Its Share Of Duds

Three years ago, Mike Mamula was the talk of the Indianapolis scouting combine, a projected third-rounder whose quickness and agility moved him up to the first.

Two-and-a-half months later, Philadelphia traded up to take Mamula with the seventh overall pick in the 1995 draft, viewing him as an impact defensive end. After three seasons, he has just 17-1/2 sacks, is too small (250 pounds) to be a force against the run and qualifies as a disappointment.

Call it a mistake produced by the combine.

Ask NFL personnel executives and they’re likely to say that the most accurate indicator of success on an NFL field is success on a college field.

“If a guy plays well in big games against good competition in college, he’s likely to do the same professionally,” says George Young, the former Giants general manager who is now the league’s senior vice president for football operations.

But no one gets hit at the scouting combine. Even small-college players who want to prove themselves can do it more efficiently by doing well against major-college players in all-star games - John Mobley of the Broncos, who played at Kutztown State, is one example.

On the other hand, there are the declining draft fortunes of Randy Moss, the Marshall wide receiver.

Projected as a top-five pick, Moss turned off some teams with his lackluster performance against Mississippi in the Motor City Bowl - the toughest competition he faced this year.

Several scouts said he flinched going over the middle, a major drawback for a top receiver. Moss, who also has the baggage of past personal problems, will still go high - he can run and jump, qualities he’s sure to demonstrate at the scouting combine. Except that he has backed out, citing the need to recuperate from oral surgery.

Being chosen high can often be a burden.

If Mamula hadn’t been such a hit at the combine, he would have gone somewhere between the late first round and early third.

Then he could be a situational pass rusher instead of a starter and wouldn’t be considered as big a disappointment.

Don’t spend it all at once

Teams seeking to load up with free agents with the additional $12 million-$14 million the new TV deal adds to the salary cap better be careful.

For one thing, there aren’t too many free agents this season who can make or break a team. For another, (see the Raiders) bringing in big names doesn’t guarantee winning - football is a game where on good teams, the whole is better than the sum of individual parts.

“What put Green Bay over the top wasn’t the signing of Reggie White. What put Green Bay over the top was a great quarterback,” says Mike Brown, Cincinnati’s GM. “With a great quarterback you can do remarkably well. Without one, you hunt and peck and scratch and it’s harder for you to solve the problem.”

As of now, there are only a handful of potential free agents whose impact could lift a team.

The offensive group includes running backs Dorsey Levens (Green Bay) and Robert Smith (Minnesota); wide receivers Robert Brooks (Green Bay), Johnnie Morton (Detroit) and Yancey Thigpen (Pittsburgh); offensive tackles Todd Steussie (Minnesota); John Jackson (Pittsburgh) and Bruce Armstrong (New England); guards Wally Williams (Baltimore) and guard Tre Johnson (Washington).

The best defensive players available are defensive ends Willie McGinest (New England), Gabe Wilkins (Green Bay) and Dan Wilkinson (Cincinnati); tackles Chester McGlockton (Oakland) and John Randle (Minnesota); linebackers Ken Harvey (Washington), Bryce Paup (Buffalo), Jason Gildon (Pittsburgh) and defensive backs Doug Evans (Green Bay) and Ryan McNeil (St. Louis).

Many from that group will either re-sign (Levens and Evans are high priority for the Packers; Steussie, Randle and Smith for the Vikings; and McNeal for the Rams.) Others (McGlockton and McGinest) could be made franchise players, meaning they will stay.

The biggest problem may be identifying the legitimate players. Look what happened with the old regime in Tampa when it signed Alvin Harper from the Cowboys.

“Beware not to take someone else’s No. 2 receiver as your No. 1,” says Gary Horton, a former scout who’s the analyst for a scouting publication, “The War Room.”

In any event, many of the best teams are now using the draft for their core players, then filling in the holes with unproven youngsters or aging veterans. Like San Francisco, which brought in Deion Sanders, Rickey Jackson, Chris Doleman, Garrison Hearst and Kevin Gogan.

So teams like the Bucs or Giants, which moved up last season and retained a core of good young players, could go after the wide receivers they need - from Thigpen (expensive) to Cincinnati’s Darnay Scott (cheap). Or the Redskins could choose from a variety of second-rate defensive linemen (Arizona’s Michael Bankston?) to shore up their run defense.

But quick fixes?

High risk.

Jerry’s quest

Jerry Jones now says it doesn’t matter if he has a coach for the Cowboys until after the draft - be it Terry Donahue, Sherm Lewis, or the “mystery man,” who may be Jones himself.

Maybe he’s right.

But there are two problems.

One is Jones is a bottom-line guy and isn’t going to pay a new coach big bucks.

The other is Jones’ hands-on approach.

Choosing a new coach is rarely an exact science and recent history is rife with mistakes. There was Les Steckel, who ran the Vikings for a year (1984) like a Marine boot camp and Ray Handley, who spent two clueless seasons (1991-92) with the Giants.

But the real secret of hiring a coach is choosing from a large number of qualified candidates and matching him to your needs.

Mike Shanahan, for example, didn’t fit in Oakland, where Al Davis makes all the calls, but fits wonderfully in Denver. There are plenty of people who think the same could apply to Jon Gruden, the first outsider Davis has hired since he fired Shanahan four games into the 1989 season.

The difference between Jones and Davis?

Davis sends emissaries from the press box or owners’ box to instruct his players and coaches. Jones goes down to the field and does it himself.