Early Spring Predicted Forecaster Says Impact From El Nino Waning

The latest predictions about El Nino may be a bit overblown.

The cycle of warming and cooling in the Pacific Ocean was supposed to bring more rain and cooler weather to the West Coast affecting next year’s crops. Instead, after a fairly warm winter, El Nino is almost over and should lead the Northwest into an early, balmy spring.

At least, that’s what Art “The Weatherman” Douglas told 300 farmers Tuesday at the Ag Expo and Pacific Northwest Farm Forum in Spokane. The atmospheric science specialist from Creighton University in Omaha is a star attraction for Northwest farmers who want to know what and when to plant.

“The idea that we’re having more El Ninos and they’re stronger isn’t true,” he said. “This El Nino has peaked and will not match the El Nino of 1982-83.”

Douglas said this week’s near-zero temperatures in the Inland Northwest are probably the coldest it will get this winter. Farmers can look forward to warm weather and plenty of precipitation.

While farmers may have been relieved to hear that spring should be good for crops, they weren’t so happy to hear the news from Jim Jesernig, director of the Washington State Department of Agriculture. He came with warnings that producers can be vulnerable to citizen suits if they violate the Clean Water Act or the Endangered Species Act.

“When these things have gone to court, most of the time agriculture has lost,” he said.

Lawsuits already have popped up in the dairy industry, he said. By working with state and federal agencies such as the Natural Marine Fisheries Service to change their practices and comply with the law, agricultural producers could be less vulnerable to citizen suits. Wheat farmers already are forming alliances with the NMFS to avoid that path.

“I think there is a way to walk through the mine field and we have to do it fairly quickly,” Jesernig said.

Discussing trade, he said that while sales of staples like wheat and soybeans won’t likely drop because of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, commodities such as apples and potatoes may suffer.

Jesernig also discussed water rights and certifying more fish on the Snake and Columbia rivers as endangered. This will affect nearly everyone east of the Cascades, he said. Farmers need to educate and brace themselves.

“You have the upper Columbia now involved and all of Eastern Washington now because of the bull trout listing,” he said. “The endangered species act isn’t going to go away.”

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