To Win, Broncos Must Be Control Freaks

They are 12-point underdogs, as the AFC team always seems to be this time of year.

They are given no chance to win Super Bowl XXXII, the same chance the AFC team is given this time of year.

They are the Denver Broncos and, if you believe the hype, they are in trouble Sunday when they square off with the defending world champion Green Bay Packers at Qualcomm Park because they will be asked to perform a task they cannot perform.

They will be asked to win the Super Bowl, something the AFC has not done in 14 years and the Broncos have failed to do four times already.

History and, it would seem, common sense both support this conclusion. The Packers are the better team, both on offense and on defense, it is being said. The Broncos have an old John Elway, the Packers have the new John Elway, it is being said.

The Packers have a great running back, the Broncos do not have a great enough run defense, it is being said.

The Broncos have a great running back, the Packers have a greater run defense, it is being said.

Despite all that is being said, nothing is truly impossible in these games, as the New York Jets proved 29 years ago in Super Bowl III when they beat the supposedly unbeatable Baltimore Colts. They had a Hall of Fame quarterback, Joe Namath, leading them that day, just as the Broncos will have one in Elway, but it was not Namath who beat the Colts, just as it cannot be Elway who beats the Packers if such a remarkable thing is to happen.

The way Namath and the Jets did it is the same way Elway and the Broncos must do it. On that afternoon in 1969, the Jets’ Matt Snell, a bruising inside runner, rushed for 121 yards to bolster an offense that piled up 337 yards and controlled the clock while the defense intercepted three first-half passes from Earl Morrall to open a 16-0 lead in an eventual 16-7 victory.

It is a familiar formula - run the ball and play good defense - and the only one the game, but outgunned Broncos can hope to come up with if they want to break the AFC’s Super Bowl drought. That does not mean Elway should do nothing but hand off to Terrell Davis and stay out of the way, however. As Namath did, Elway must throw effectively and accurately. He must do all he can which is still quite a lot, even at 37 to avoid the pass rush and solve Green Bay’s nickel coverages and zone blitzes, because it will often be his arm that keeps Denver’s drives alive just as it was Namath’s arm, on passes to George Sauer, that battered a sick and weakened corner back named Lenny Lyles over and over again.

Namath passed for only 206 yards, completing 17 of 28 without a touchdown, but he was named the game’s Most Valuable Player (although Snell or cornerback Johnny Sample probably deserved it more) because he kept his team out of trouble and kept his opponent on the sideline, and that is where the Broncos need to keep the Packers’ offense.

Green Bay’s Brett Favre is not only the best quarterback in the NFL at the moment, but also the most resourceful. He can change a game, and if given enough opportunities, he will. He will do it with a pass or a run or an impromptu display of daring, and so Denver’s offense has to hold the ball long enough to limit the exposure of its defense to Favre. Too much Favre is like too much red meat - deadly.

But at some point there is no avoiding the need to play defense. Ultimately, the Broncos will have to play it, and when they do, they must pressure Favre with rejuvenated linemen Neil Smith and Alfred Williams and somehow find a way for their weak secondary to not fall prey to the speedy Packers receivers, Antonio Freeman and Robert Brooks.

Most of all, that defense must not let running back Dorsey Levens do to it what it hopes Davis does to the Packers, because if he does, the game is over. If Levens can run free, it means Favre runs wild and the Broncos get run out of Qualcomm Park the same way they’ve been run out of three other Super Bowl venues dating back to 1978.

Of all things that are sure about this game, one is surest of all: The Broncos cannot win a shootout with Favre, so they must control the ball if they are to win. They must shorten the game with long enough runs to move the chains without Elway being constantly at risk of decapitation, and that means they have to do what has been nigh impossible for any team to do in these playoffs.

The Broncos must find a way to run on the Packers.

Before injuries to Gilbert Brown limited him to playing in less than half the Packers’ defensive plays this season, Green Bay held teams to just over 80 yards a game rushing. That figure soared to 117.3 yards, but with Brown returning to full-time duty in the playoffs, the Packers allowed an average of slightly more than 60 yards on the ground against Tampa, which had a Pro Bowl backfield, and San Francisco, which had a 1,000-yard rusher and a new emphasis on the run designed specifically to combat the Pack.

Denver tackle Tony Jones must avoid being manhandled the way New England’s Max Lane was a year ago by Reggie White, and center Tom Nalen and guards Brian Habib and Mark Schlereth must get some push in the middle on Brown and Santana Dotson, Green Bay’s active defensive tackles. If Denver can do that, it will serve two purposes. It will provide running room for the AFC’s leading rusher and it will be the best defense against Favre.

“Brett is a great quarterback, but I haven’t yet seen him score a touchdown from the sidelines,” joked 49ers coach and former Packers quarterback coach Steve Mariucci before Green Bay hammered his team 23-10 in the NFC Championship game.

A running game would do more than keep Favre pinned to the bench. It also would wear down Green Bay’s fleshy front four, which has shown fatigue in the few games opponents have been able to force them to play the run for four quarters. Brown is in woeful shape despite his production, Gabe Wilkins is coming off injuries, and White is showing his age. If they are still hand-fighting in the fourth quarter, this game could be interesting.

Of course, saying it could be is not the same as saying it will be. The experts are not saying it will be, and the wise guys are betting it won’t be, and the fact is it might not be.

But this is only Tuesday, and on Tuesday it still could be, which is what the Broncos have to remember. They have to remember that it doesn’t matter what people say or write or how they wager. What matters is turning what could be into what is on Sunday.

If they can do that, the Broncos could upset a lot of people, not the least of them the Packers.