Faa Predicts Strong Growth For Aviation Forecast Is Good News For Airlines, Aircraft Makers

The aviation industry posted its fourth consecutive strong year in 1997 and is expected to grow domestically 3.5 percent annually over the next 12 years, the FAA said in a report released last week.

The projected growth, the result of such factors as an increase in the number of senior citizens and passengers in Asia, is good news for airlines, aircraft makers and other related businesses. It could be tempered if the current economic problems in Asia last more than two years, or if there is a spike in world fuel prices.

Transportation Secretary Rodney Slater and FAA Administrator Jane Garvey discussed details of the report at the kickoff of the Federal Aviation Administration’s 23rd annual Commercial Aviation Forecast Conference here.

According to the report, domestic boardings by paying passengers increased by 3.4 percent last year, from 524.5 million in 1996 to 542.3 million in 1997. International boardings increased 4.2 percent, from 50.3 million to 52.5 million.

With more passengers, the airline industry reported a sizable increase in operating profits, up $1.9 billion in 1997 to $7.9 billion total. In 1993, industry operating profits were closer to $300 million.

FAA officials said the traffic increase was primarily spurred by the solid U.S. and world economies. As more people fly, that spurs orders for new aircraft and related services.

The report projected the U.S. air carrier jet fleet will increase from 4,953 planes last year to 7,419 in 2009, an annual increase of 3.4 percent.

Over that same span, the FAA is expecting steady passenger growth. As the number of senior citizens grows, they are expected to travel more since they have the time and disposable income.

The total number of passengers flown to and from the United States is forecast to nearly double over the next 12 years, from 109.8 million this year to 204.4 million in 2009.

The number of Atlantic-route passengers, currently the biggest bloc of travelers to and from the United States, is expected to increase roughly 4.6 percent annually over the next 12 years, to 73.8 million total in 2009. That number, however, is expected to be overtaken by passengers on Latin American routes during that same period.

The FAA projects that the number of Pacific passengers will increase 6.7 percent annually to 54.1 million in 2009, while the number of passengers to and from Latin America will grow 6.5 percent annually to 76.6 million in 2009.

Amid the good news was a warning from the people who have to supervise all those flights: air traffic controllers.

“We have always said it’s important to increase the number of air traffic controllers in proportion to the increase in traffic,” said Mark DiPalmo, a spokesman for the Air Traffic Controllers’ Association.

FAA officials briefing reporters said more passengers doesn’t necessarily mean a proportionate increase in aircraft, since many of the newer airplanes carry more passengers than the ones they’re replacing.