Outages Must Not Dim A Bright Future

Much has changed since the 1970s, when Washington state built nuclear reactors it never finished to generate electricity it didn’t need. But one thing hasn’t changed: Once again, electricity forecasters are warning that the Northwest faces a power shortage.

This time, it is more likely that they are right.

This time, it will be more difficult to find additional power.

And that is a very big deal. The Northwest’s new economy features firms that depend on smooth, stable power: Microsoft, Intel, Hewlett-Packard, Micron, Amazon.com and hundreds of high-tech spinoffs and startups. Sawmills and aluminum smelters might tolerate an occasional voltage spike but not computers.

What’s in jeopardy is the very stability these companies require.

Strangely, this topic has barely made a ripple on the pond of public consciousness. We’ve all been busy kicking and splashing about whether to shut down hydroelectric dams, the cleanest of all power sources, to save some wild salmon runs. But business planners and utility industry insiders are concerned. The rest of us should start paying attention, too.

The forecasting of power demand is the responsibility of the Northwest Power Planning Council. After the nuclear reactor fiasco, the council developed more-accurate forecasting models. Those new models say that by 2003, there is a 24 percent probability that supply will fall short of demand during peak periods such as a February cold snap. Planners prefer to keep the probability of shortfalls at 5 percent.

If a shortfall occurs, engineers must trigger rotating power shut-offs, one substation after another, to prevent voltage instability throughout the region. The forecasted shortfalls could last from a few hours to a few days and could range from small deficits to huge deficits of a couple thousand megawatts.

And yet, for most of the year, the power supply is still adequate. This makes a solution harder to find. Today it is the private sector, rather than government, that builds generating capacity. Private companies need a return on their investment. Where’s the return if the demand only occurs during occasional peaks? And what’s the source? Nuclear is out, coal and hydro are under attack. Solar, wind and fuel-cell power are not yet available in prices or quantities the market demands.

Three methods hold promise: natural gas turbines, additional conservation and a re-establishment of interruptible power for heavy industrial users like aluminum.

On Feb. 28, in Portland, the Power Council and others will convene a Keep the Lights On conference. Good move. Time is short. Our region’s economic future is at stake.