Numbers point to slower growth

NEW YORK — Offering more evidence that the nation’s economic recovery is losing steam, a closely watched gauge of future business activity fell in July for the second consecutive month.

The Conference Board said Thursday that its Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators dropped by 0.3 percent in July to 116.0, following a revised decline of 0.1 percent in June. Last month was the first time in more than a year that the index had lost ground, and the July decline was larger than the 0.1 percent dip forecast by analysts.

The index is closely followed because it is designed to forecast the economy’s health over the coming three to six months. Economists said the new reading, taken together with a mixed batch of other recent data, points to slower growth in the months ahead.

“When the economy is growing at sort of a moderate, modest pace, you’ll get indicators pointing in opposing directions and it seems like that’s what we’ve been seeing in recent months,” said Patrick Fearon, an economist with A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis.

Ken Goldstein, an economist with the Conference Board, said the continued decline in the index reflects the effect that a host of factors — from energy prices to worries about terrorism — are having on the economy.

“The latest decline in the Leading Index reflects a loss of forward momentum,” Goldstein said. “There are growing concerns about the high cost of gasoline and milk, as well as worries about where economic growth will come from now that tax refunds have been spent and short-term interest rates are rising.”

The New York-based Conference Board said six of the 10 indicators that make up the index declined in July. They included vendor performance, the interest rate spread, stock prices, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, real money supply and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods.