Evans, Gabriel good catches if you’re looking for a WR
The season has crystallized to its fantasy essence for all of us still alive. The playoffs are at hand. Bragging rights are at stake. With 75 percent of the season in the books, matchups can be relied upon and often dictate who advances and who gets the crying towels.
These are the teams you want your QBs playing against: Houston, Oakland, Green Bay, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Detroit. All are among the worst in points allowed per passing attempt, yielding scores about twice as frequently as the leaders in that category: Baltimore, Carolina, Denver, New England, San Diego, Philadelphia, Washington.
So, it’s boom times for these QBs (and their receivers): Peyton Manning (best against worst: Houston), Michael Vick (vs. Oakland), Brett Favre (Detroit), Aaron Brooks (Dallas). But it could be the worst of times for Carson Palmer (New England), Brian Griese (Chargers), Donovan McNabb (Redskins, though he just threw four TDs against them and is a must-start).
You want your runners matched against defenses that allow four-plus yards per carry and at least one rushing TD per game: Cleveland (16 rushing TDs allowed), New Orleans (14), Kansas City (14), Tennessee (13) and Minnesota (12). Defenses that allow under four yards per carry and half a TD per game or less: Pittsburgh (4), Buffalo (4), New England (5), Washington (6), Jets (6), Baltimore (6), Jacksonville (6).
Expect these RBs to boom: Willis McGahee (vs. Browns), Julius Jones (Saints), Chris Brown (Chiefs, but check his injury status), Shawn Alexander (Vikings). These guys could bust: Curtis Martin (Steelers), Tiki Barber (Ravens), Rudi Johnson (Patriots).
Buy
Lee Evans (WR, Bills): The Wisconsin speedster has scored TDs in three of the last four weeks and goes up against a Browns team that’s given up. Evans is averaging 19 yards per catch and never sees double coverage with Eric Moulds around and teams stacking the line to stop Willis McGahee. Well worth the last-gasp waiver claim.
Doug Gabriel (WR, Raiders): Last week’s Ronald Curry call was well on its way to being a home run when season-ending injury struck. But Kerry Collins is white hot and Gabriel looks like a Curry clone.
Michael Vick (QB, Falcons): The Falcons are last in the league in completions and only the Steelers throw a lower percentage of passes. But Vick not only gets the Raiders this week, but very accommodating New Orleans Week 16. The running yards will be nice. But Vick will score with his arm these weeks, a rarity to date.
Sell
Tiki Barber (RB, Giants): Eli Manning sure went and ruined a good thing for Barber owners. Tiki had been the NFL’s second most productive back but has had no TDs since Eli was given the reins (the Giants offense has only scored once in Manning’s three games). Baltimore and Pittsburgh are on deck.
Reuben Droughns (RB, Broncos): He was just a “buy” here (because we felt the carries would translate into TDs, as they have), but Mike Shanahan keeps us on our toes. Sunday, with all the division chips on the table, Shanahan sidelined Droughns for 33 percent of the carries. Expect that time-share to continue.
Hold
Carson Palmer (QB, Bengals): I know he just skewered the Ravens in Baltimore, but the Bengals had three points going into the fourth quarter. The Patriots are on deck, followed by another tough matchup against the Bills before a Week 16 cakewalk against the Giants. If you’ve made it this far, you have better options this week at QB. Use them.