Report predicts rapid U.S. growth

Residential and commercial development in the next quarter-century will eclipse anything seen in previous generations as the nation moves to accommodate rapid population growth, according to a Brookings Institution report released today.

About half the homes, office buildings, stores and factories that will be needed by 2030 don’t exist today, says Arthur C. Nelson, author of the report for the think tank in Washington, D.C.

The U.S. population is expected to increase 33 percent to 376 million by 2030, according to the analysis. That’s 94 million more people than in 2000.

To serve that population, almost 60 million housing units will have to be built. About 20 million of these units will replace destroyed or aging homes.

Also, half of the largest metropolitan areas will have to add as much or more commercial and industrial space as existed in 2000, the report says.

The projections are startling for a nation already coping with sprawl, traffic congestion and the strains they put on the environment. Phenomenal growth in the South and West has turned deserts and soybean fields into cities. The report projects that these regions, which face water limitations, will experience the greatest surge in construction in the next 25 years.

If patterns don’t change, subdivisions will continue to sprout on farm land farther from metropolitan areas, requiring more roads and sewer lines.

For generations, Americans favored single-family homes on larger lots. Development spread to where land is cheaper but within commuting distance to jobs.

There are signs that people want more choices. Frustration with long commutes is mounting. Downtown housing is enjoying a revival. Even suburbs are creating city-style town centers that combine stores, offices and condos in a walkable environment.

But change is coming slowly, says John McIlwain, senior housing fellow at the Urban Land Institute, a research group that works with developers.

“We’re going to wind up with anywhere between 60 percent and 70 percent of development occurring where it’s always occurred since World War II: On the outer edge,” he says.