Seattle lab developing tsunami warning system

SEATTLE – Hours after an earthquake-driven tidal wave slammed into coastlines from Asia to Africa, a 1,000-mile-long tsunami sped across Vasily Titov’s computer screen.

The re-creation is part of research here to develop a new forecasting system to better protect coastal communities from disasters like the magnitude 9.0 earthquake that struck near Indonesia on Sunday. The quake generated tsunamis that killed more than 55,000 people.

“Our goal is to have results (a tsunami prediction) in 15 minutes or less” after an earthquake, said Titov, a mathematician and computer modeler on a team of tsunami researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory here.

The lab pioneered the first real-time early warning system for tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. It’s now part of an international effort to accurately and rapidly forecast the path of massive waves that follow a major deep-sea quake.

Titov’s digitized tsunami showed the wall of water traveling about 500 mph westward from Sumatra toward Sri Lanka and India. The results aren’t exact, he said, but a rapid forecast and alert system based on the seismic and bathymetric (sea floor topography) data could have saved lives.

“Some locations would have had two hours to warn and evacuate people,” said Dr. Frank Gonzalez, who heads the research team.

A tsunameter is a sophisticated pressure gauge placed on the ocean floor that sends signals to a surface buoy that radios information to a satellite. Scientists receive the data and determine whether a warning is appropriate.

In the early 1990s, scientists recognized the Pacific Northwest could be at risk from an earthquake like the one that struck off the coast of Sumatra.

Washington began developing a tsunami warning and evacuation system, primarily for high-risk communities along the Pacific coast.

Gonzalez’s team also has worked with state officials to map the regions most likely to be affected by a tsunami. Some areas have evacuation drills, with sirens and escape routes posted. Schools also educate children about the risk.