Strategists predict close electoral race

BOSTON – John Kerry narrowly trails President Bush in the battle for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, as he makes his case at the Democratic National Convention this week to topple the Republican incumbent.

Tall hurdles remain in his path, including Electoral College math that favors Bush.

“It’s a tough, tough map. I think it’s going to be a close race,” said Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who helped plot Al Gore’s state-by-state strategy in 2000 and plays the same role for Kerry.

“But looking back four years, we’re much stronger now. I think we’re going into this convention in great shape,” he said.

With three months remaining in a volatile campaign, Kerry has 14 states and the District of Columbia in his column for 193 electoral votes. Bush has 25 states for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country.

Both candidates are short of the magic 270 electoral votes. The margin of victory will come from:

“ Toss-ups: Bush and Kerry are running even in 11 states with a combined 128 electoral votes. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia are the toughest battlegrounds. Two other toss-ups, Pennsylvania and Oregon, could soon move to Kerry’s column.

“ Lean Kerry: Maine, Minnesota and Washington (a combined 25 electoral votes) favor Kerry over Bush by a few percentage points. Gore carried them in 2000.

“ Lean Bush: North Carolina, Colorado, Louisiana, Arizona, Virginia, Arkansas and Missouri (a combined 73 electoral votes) give Bush modest leads. He won all seven in 2000.

All total, 21 states are in play. Some will bounce between “lean” to “toss-up” throughout the campaign.

Four years ago, Bush won 30 states and their 271 electoral votes – one more than needed. Gore, who won the popular vote, claimed 20 states plus the District of Columbia for 267 electoral votes.

Since then, reapportionment added electoral votes to states with population gains and took them from states losing people. The result: Bush’s states are now worth 278 electoral votes and Gore’s are worth just 260.

Even if Kerry consolidates Gore’s states, no easy task, the Democrat must take 10 electoral votes from Bush’s column to close the electoral vote gap.

Flush with money and leading a united party, Kerry increased his odds by expanding the playing field into a handful of GOP states that Bush easily won in 2000, including Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Virginia and Colorado. Results have been mixed.

After testing the waters, Kerry pulled his ads from Arkansas and Louisiana, and he downgraded his focus on Virginia and Arizona. Hispanic voters make Colorado a prime target, but Democrats acknowledge it’s a tough state to win.

“The race is still fundamentally tied, and the Electoral College map reflects that,” said Bush strategist Matthew Dowd. “But there is beginning to be a slight tilt toward us with Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and Arizona no longer being seriously contested.”