Bush visit not likely to sway many voters

President Bush’s visit to Spokane today is sure to bring plenty of money to Rep.George Nethercutt’s Senate campaign, but will it win Nethercutt votes?

Most political watchers and party officials say no.

What the visit will do is rally the state’s Republican faithful behind Bush’s re-election campaign and Nethercutt’s bid to unseat Washington Sen. Patty Murray, while signaling Washington’s importance in the party’s national strategy, said Robin Ball, the Spokane County Republican’s chairwoman.

“I’m not so sure this impacts the undecideds. I do think it helps to motivate the grass-roots effort,” Ball said.

After losing Washington to presidential candidate Al Gore by 5 percentage points in 2000, Bush badly wants to win the state this year, Ball said.

“We also think it will cause people to notice just how important the Senate race is nationally,” she said.

Nethercutt is the first Senate candidate for whom Bush will campaign this year. And Nethercutt still hasn’t officially won his party’s bid for the seat. Reed Davis, a Western Washington political science professor, is running against Nethercutt in the Republican primary, although state and national party officials have thrown their support behind Nethercutt.

“I don’t think any of us are discouraged by that,” said Davis campaign spokesman Rob Crowther.

The Murray-Nethercutt race is one of the country’s top-10 most expensive Senate races, according to campaign finance watchdog group the Center for Responsive Politics.

Some Spokesman-Review readers contacted by e-mail indicated that Bush’s visit will be unlikely to sway voters toward or away from Nethercutt.

Most said that they’ve already made up their mind about who will get their vote, both for president and the Senate. Many indicated that while they may have Republican or Democratic leanings, they also have strong independent streaks and decide on a case-by-case, rather than party, basis.

“President Bush’s visit will not impact my vote for or against anyone. I’m not even sure I’m going to vote for him, why would his endorsement impress me one way or another?” wrote Dora-Faye Hendricks, who supported Bush in 2000 and said she will vote for Nethercutt this fall.

Bill King said he tends to favor Republicans and voted for Bush in 2000, but he will vote for Patty Murray this fall.

“I think it is great that Bush comes out to support his party, but in this case I think he’s backing a weak candidate,” King wrote.

Other Republicans said they already planned to vote for Nethercutt.

“Bush’s visit doesn’t change my vote, but I hope and pray it changes the vote of many others, especially for Nethercutt,” wrote Scott Rodin.

“I would love to be able to watch the motorcade, but I will be working,” said Janet Stowe, who added. “The president’s visit will not impact how I vote in the Senate race. I could never vote for Patty Murray.”

Democrat Josh Calvert wrote that Nethercutt needs all the help he can get: “Nethercutt has done squat for the 5th District,” Calvert said, adding that the president’s visit is only spurring him on to work toward Bush’s defeat.

Calvert isn’t the only Democrat getting worked up about Bush’s visit.

“It’s rallying people in Spokane,” said Spokane County Democratic Party Chairwoman Mary Pat Laushot – rallying them against Bush.

The Democrats are having a “Burgers Against Bush” event in Riverfront Park tonight.

Bush’s last-minute push through the South last year helped boost several Republicans’ campaigns, including gubernatorial races in Mississippi and Kentucky.

In 2002, Bush helped Republicans take control of Congress by campaigning for Republicans in 40 states.

But Bush’s job approval rating is down to around 50 percent now compared with above 60 percent last year.

“I doubt if there will be very much in the way of (political) coattails, unless something really surprising and good happens with the economy and Iraq,” said David Nice, a political science professor at Washington State University.

“The main thing it’s probably going to do is help raise money for Nethercutt,” Nice said.

Even though Bush isn’t speaking at a Nethercutt fund-raiser in the Seattle area, the Spokane visit could still boost Nethercutt’s name recognition in Western Washington, said Suzanne Tomlin, communications director for the Washington State Republican Party.

“It’s a great thing because, especially when the head of the party – the president – campaigns for you, that’s about the highest endorsement you can get,” Tomlin said.